Iran -
The govt has ‘arrested’ those involved in the shooting down of the airliner. This appears to be a sop thrown out to quench the protests which are going into another day. Little details because Iran has also killed the internet in areas of unrest.
This action appears to be confirming some rumblings I’ve read that there is a schism between the IRGC and the mullahs. These rumors last week suggested that Iran was implicit in tipping off the general’s movements hoping for a kill strike. This was because the mullahs were concerned that an increasing power hungry IRGC was threatening their authority and leadership. IT is being reported today that the IRGC is angry because the govt (Rouhani) claims that it was “misled” by the military.
If there is a schism between these two elements, it would indicate that internal conditions and rule are crumbling. The recent antigovt protest, reflamed by the shoot down, are approaching the largest since the overthrow of the shah. In the protestors cross hair are the mullahs, so naturally they want to deflect the anger to the military to save their hides.
This downward spiral may lead to several possible outcomes.
1. Iran launches a war against US or Israel in an attempt to rally support. Not good because they don’t have the economic legs for a protracted conflict
2. Military overthrow of the mullahs (or select mullahs). this would almost certainly lead to a more open civil war.
To throw more gas on the fire, France, UK and Germany have put forth a joint statement saying Iran is in violation of the JCPOA deal and are demanding activation of the dispute mechanism. These countries haven’t pulled out of the deal. Just more pressure on an already troubled and cornered regime.
What’s missing from all these recent Iran discussions - the regular armed forces. Where are their heads in all of this? I know after 40 years of mullah reign they are pretty emasculated. Early in the regime they were not fond of the IRGC and there were rumblings. The mullahs responded by shooting a lot of regular officers, pushing people out, etc & used the IRGC as the regime protection force. Are there still rumblings in the regular forces and its not being reported?
Iraq -
Several Katusha rockets were fired at the Taj military base north of Bagdad. Reportedly two hit but only an Iraqi security guard was injured. this is most likely from the Iranian supported militas. Expect more of the same in the coming weeks.
Sudan -
Skirmish in Khartoum between Sudan Army and NISS occurred overnight.