I don’t want to be over-confident, and we can’t underestimate the Dems’ ability to cheat, but if stepping back from it and trying to look at it as dispassionately as possible, Trump is in a MUCH stronger position for reelection than Bush 43 was in 2004. Bush’s economy was so-so. Trump’s is a grand slam. Bush had us mired in a bad situation in Iraq. Trump has kept us out of new conflicts. And Kerry, such despite being an annoying a-hole we all hate, was at least younger and smarter than Biden/Bernie/Liz. Of course, 11 months is a long time and things can but at this point, honestly, you step back from it, 2020 looks like a cinch.
Confidence without complacence is the best attitude to have going into an election.