Can China Dislodge Russia in Central Asia?

Wsj opinions ^ | April 29, 2019 | Walter Russell Mead

[NorseViking]

In one former Soviet republic, Beijing’s blandishments get it only so far.

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

A trip to the picturesque capital of this mountainous landlocked republic in Central Asia feels a bit like traveling through time. The brutalist architecture and the monumental scale of the avenues and city squares show just how deeply the Soviet Union left its imprint, and the scarcity of Western-style shopping malls and food chains shows how slowly the local economy has grown since the Soviet collapse.

Bishkek also offers a window into the future of Chinese power. The five countries in Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan—stretch from the Tien Shan mountains to the Caspian Sea. They contain majestic mountains, fertile valleys and vast reserves of minerals, oil and gas. They are also central to China’s ambitious attempt to transform international trade so that land routes across Asia replace the sea routes between Europe and Asia.

Many Western observers think China’s rise to primacy in Central Asia, where Russia has traditionally dominated, is inevitable. Russia’s economy is stagnant, while the appeal of China’s vast market, its cheap consumer goods, and its multibillion-dollar commitment to build a rail and road network throughout the region all tend to pull these countries away from Moscow and toward Beijing.

But in Bishkek, things look different. While China clearly plays an important role in the economy, Kyrgyz and foreign observers alike agree that Russian influence remains paramount—and many Kyrgyz want it to stay that way.

[SunkenCiv]

• Khamenei Runs the Most Corrupted Financial System Despite the People's Poverty in Iran
• The adventures of Nicholas Cage in Kazakhstan (hilarious)
• United States to remain sole global economic superpower until 2035, Chinese gov't think tank says
• About 200 US companies seeking to move manufacturing base from China to India
• Steve Hilton: China Is 'Funding Biden Family Businesses' with 'Billions of Dollars'
• As churches are demolished at home, Chinese Christians find religious freedom in Kenya

[Zhang Fei]

In time, China will move against the Central Asian countries, a chunk of which was previously Chinese territory. In any event, a significant portion of the Central Asian ethnicities once resided within the Chinese empire. The Uighur Muslim re-education camps may be a test run for what China will do with the Central Asian Muslims that will reside within its borders once the PLA gets moving in the region. Russia will likely acquiesce in China’s expansion because it can’t afford to antagonize its sugar daddy, whose economy is roughly 8x its size, because the price of normalization with the West is Russia’s disgorgement of the Crimea and the portions of East Ukraine it has annexed in all but name.

[NorseViking]

Three are no simple answers. Third Word got used to the idea that the British and Russian ‘imperialism’ were bad. It doesn’t seem any bad now in comparison with the Chinese coming.