For clarity and judging the accuracy of my posts, I’m sifting through about a dozen credible military/intelligence twitter feeds on actions that may or may not show up on the regular news feeds. I’ll try to highlight those less credible than others, because there are propaganda posts on both sides as well as an increased fog of war.
Pakistan/India
Apparently the olive branch offered by Pakistan via the return of the pilot has been ignored by India. Reports indicate increased shelling of Pakistani civilian targets, with multiple deaths. Pakistan has responded with increased attacks on Indian civilian area. Pakistani sentiment is increasing anger at the rejection of the offer and less trust in the govt. Both sides have apparently granted the military leaders of both countries wide latitude in reacting to activity along the border.
In addition to increased artillery attacks, there are unconfirmed rumors that India is using short range “missiles”. Type of “missile” is unknown but could range from guided antitank to unguided katusha style.
Reports of a lot of Pakistani CAP over the eastern part of the country.
My assessment is that India is wanting a war. They have a larger military, nuclear triad and are feeling froggy. Pakistan govt recognizes that they are undergunned for a conventional war but may not be able to overcome popular support rising for one. Turkey has contacted Pakistan and offered their verbal support at this time. No word about other Islamic terror groups flocking to the border to face this challenge to islam.
If a war breaks out and Pakistan is being beaten badly, they may fall back on their nukes to break the momentum of the conflict in a tactical manner as well as strike strategic supporting facilities in India. No doubt this would result in an Indian counter strike. As one commentator put it - one false move could start a chain reaction towards this.
Pakistan/India
As noted earlier about ‘missiles’, it appears India has stepped up its attacks with a MLRS system. this would be a MAJOR escalation of the current artillery duels going on. ATGM use by India now becoming more confirmed. Reports suggest this round of artillery attacks the most significant to date
Very heavy CAP over Islamabad and other portions of Pakistan in the border area.
Finally, urgent calls for blood donations going out across Pakistan.