Threat Matrix 2019

Free Repubilc | 21 January 2019 | TM CREW

[Godzilla]

Iran/Iraq
Already aware that Iranian backed militias broke into part of the US embassy compound. They were unsuccessful in getting very far. 100 marines with now appears to be a full brigade of the 82nd enroute. FYI the ready brigade has a standard of 96 hours to be fully wheels up. Potential of a total of 4000 troops to be deployed.

Iraqi security forces assisted to limit further trouble and current reports are that militias are withdrawing from the embassy and green zone. The attack was telegraphed as the US removed nonessential personnel after the kirkirk rocket attack.

Iranian militias had earlier in the day threatened to expand their actions to other embassies but nothing has happened according to my info. Embassy attack classical hoping to repeat the debacle during carter.

My assessment. Protests will continue against the embassy. If they manage to get further into the compound I strongly believe the forces there have been cleared for lethal response. The militias are in uniform and thus a very legitimate target. I also expect a second carrier task force will be rushed to the area. I expect other Air Force combat aircraft to be moved into the region. There is no doubt Iran crossed the red line again and serious target lists are being prepared.

N Korea
On top of it all the North Korea’s Party Plenum outcome document is out. still being analyzed. Some indicate some negotiation flexibility retained. However, Kim Jong Un said just hours ago that the “world will witness a new strategic weapon” and that North Korea will now take “shocking actual action”. Could be new ICBM or even a high altitude nuke test. No osint of either or timing. Thus mixed signals at the moment.