[rdcbn]

You have a valid point, however too few people have current flu vaccine shots so there is not enough participation to impart effective herd immunity and the current vaccine may not be very effective if this is a new and more virulent strain, which is highly probable given the severity of the infection and the speed at which it killed.

Most of the people who get flu vaccinations get them because they are in a high risk category. In other words, the flu vaccine is used to prevent a high risk individual from being infected from the non vaccinated general population as opposed to providing a universal vaccination of the population to provide blanket herd immunity to that entire population.

FWIW, you need to check your 65% percent vaccine effectiveness number because it does not jive with my numbers, which come from the CDC. Flu vaccine effectiveness varies from year to year depending on the particular strain in play and how effective the vaccine is against that strain. For the last decade or so, the effectiveness has rarely been better than 50% and for some years it has been in the 10-30% effective range.

[Pelham]

“FWIW, you need to check your 65% percent vaccine effectiveness number because it does not jive with my numbers, which come from the CDC.”

Then you must be looking at effectiveness for all flu vaccines and not just H1N1.

” VE estimates from 2004-2015 found average VE of 33% (CI = 26%–39%) against illnesses caused by H3N2 viruses, compared with 61% (CI = 57%–65%) against H1N1 and 54% (CI = 46%–61%) against influenza B virus illnesses. “

VE = vaccine effectiveness
CI = Confidence Index

The above paragraph from the CDC lists H1N1 at 61% VE with a CI range of 57% to 65%. Found here:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaccineeffect.htm