The last 4 times the Fed was raising rates bigly, the S&P 500 tanked a lot more than the 16.4% it's gone down since it's all time high of 2930.75 on Sep 20, 2018. I think it's far from done going down.
The 8/25/1987 to 10/19/1987 downturn went down 33%. Today a 33% drop would be to 1963.
The 1/8/1973 to 10/4/1974 downturn was 48%. That'd be 1524 today.
The 3/27/2000 to 10/9/2002 downturn was 49%. That'd be 1495.
The 10/9/2007 to 3/6/2009 downturn was 56%. That'd be 1290!
And those were examples of rate hikes. Today it's not just rate hikes but also QT, with the Fed reducing its balance sheet by $50 billion per month. So even though the Fed has hiked the rate to being 5 times what it was when Trump was elected, the main story is the #1 investor in the market is the Fed and the Fed is getting out of the market bigly.
Excellent post.
By raising rates fivefold the Fed is also hurting Trump, the outsider who dared to expose the Swamp. To them, this is “mission accomplished”.