Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

To: Paul R.

Yes in Atlanta we had a week or two of fall weather and now the highs are in the 40’s and 50’s.


69 posted on 11/13/2018 8:28:17 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight yourr way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies ]


To: Georgia Girl 2
Our "transition" lasted a couple days. Local TV met called it "Hot-Hot-Hot-COLD!" There have been a few nice "cool" days sprinkled in since then, usually 1 at a time, but nothing remotely close to an "Indian Summer". Long range is looking a bit better - may not be too bad around Thanksgiving.

I was checking the local forecast discussions at some regional NWS offices - the Paducah office tends to be a little less formal than some others. Examples:

Nov. 13, 10:58am - The precipitation just doesn`t want to give up and the models do not have much of a clue on the amount and type of precipitation. Had to totally fabricate the top-down grids to get snow into the forecast.

Nov. 11, 10:24 pm - Ensemble GEFS plume (snow) potential has been a hoot watching for 5 days running now, with the 12Z output near zero after some indications of as much as 8" 5 days ago. The mean 5 days ago was running from 2-4" across the area and is now where our forecast is...one to three tenths for most... (trunc)

Note...after detailed sounding analysis and collaboration, we decided to shut the freezing pcpn potential off after about 09Z Tuesday. This should provide a smoother wording of Rain/Fzrain potential early in the event, transitioning to light snow before ending. `Should` being the key word...we`ll see how the formatter handles it and adjust from there. We`ll at least message our products with that strategy accordingly.

79 posted on 11/13/2018 11:37:55 AM PST by Paul R.
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 69 | View Replies ]

To: Georgia Girl 2

I went back and kicked around the Paducah NWS site a bit more: Today’s high was 27 deg. F below normal. Tomorrow, up around Murphysboro (Trump’s only 2018 IL rally location) they are looking at over 7” of snow possible. A little to the NW of that, it’s 9-1/2”. I don’t know if that’d be a record for mid-November, but I would not be surprised.

Of course, in the mid-South, if the Low tracks slightly differently than forecast, it makes a huge difference: The snow potential could be a total bust. But, even just the potential this early in that area is quite unusual, and it’s mainly due to the cold. The system and moisture patterns are not unusual at all, to my amateur eye.


84 posted on 11/13/2018 9:37:09 PM PST by Paul R.
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 69 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson