Yes, this the template for confiscation of firearms. It will be low key at first, with a few examples of what happens when one *resists*, followed by wholesale nighttime no knock raids and murders in the name of the state.
You are exactly right. Examples are being set as we speak. Sure now they can say, hey he was a bad guy, but soon that part will change too.
I know people who will respond to a no knock raid with a 50 Beowulf double tap or perhaps emptying an AR10 in 7.62x51 in a couple of seconds.