A mass shooting on Sunday. A patsy will do it. He will be identified as right wing. The Democrats will try to exploit it. Only after the election will his connections to leftist causes become apparent. And, of course, George Soros will arrange it all.
Consider all votes.
Subtract those already cast in early voting.
Subtract Republican votes that won’t change.
Subtract Democrat votes that won’t change.
Subtract votes that won’t be swayed because Trump isn’t on the ballot (change vote for senator just because some nut shot up a school and MSM blamed Trump?).
Subtract votes that could be swayed but the “surprise” isn’t a motivator.
Doesn’t leave enough votes left to bother with a surprise.