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To: davikkm
there will be no blue wave. The dimms will not take over the House. This is not going to happen. It’s all a pollster’s wet-dream, aimed at demoralizing the Republican base.

As a professional, I'll disagree. A more accurate statement is that no one knows what will happen on Tuesday. I have an educated opinion on that, but no one knows.

The proportions in early voting have changed dramatically. Was that because republicans are voting in record numbers, or was it because a higher proportion of republicans are voting early? No one knows.

The 2016 Presidential Election set a record for lowest response rate to polling in US history. Today's response rate is just over half what is was two years ago. Can we assume the same groups are responding in the same relative proportions, or have some groups withdrawn even more from the responding population than others have? Again, no one knows.

The economy is great - setting records. Do people know this in their personal lives and they will vote based on that? The press is far more biased than ever, openly abandoning any pretense of objectivity. Do voters still trust them, even a little? The thuggish left is far more violent than ever. Are voters afraid to tell the truth to pollsters, or perhaps even more motivated to vote conservative to keep the terrorist/totalitarian left out of power? Has the Antifa violence motivated the dark side that so many leftists have, and that blood lust will bring them to the polls in record numbers? There is a lot going on, but no one knows how everything will play out on Tuesday.

The best we can do is vote, bring other decent people to the polls, volunteer to monitor the polls, work get out the vote phone banks, pray, and BLOAT - buy lots of ammo today.

23 posted on 11/03/2018 7:51:51 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
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To: Pollster1
The 2016 Presidential Election set a record for lowest response rate to polling in US history. Today's response rate is just over half what is was two years ago. Can we assume the same groups are responding in the same relative proportions, or have some groups withdrawn even more from the responding population than others have? Again, no one knows.

Real Clear Politics with their averaging of polls claim it makes them more accurate, I think they are deliberately ignoring the problem of their method helps reduce random error, but exacerbates error due to unrepresentative samples. I also wonder if the response rates have gotten low enough that the multiple polls are no longer using independent samples.

30 posted on 11/04/2018 5:05:07 AM PST by Fraxinus (My opinion, worth what you paid.)
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