Posted on 11/03/2018 6:28:10 AM PDT by davikkm
Anything else is a vote to impeach President Trump.
I firmly believe that the Republicans will pick up seats, perhaps as many as twenty. My guess means nothing of course, but I sense a major slap in the face of all pollsters and the arrogant demcrats. The current breakdown in the house is 235 Republican and 193 Democrat. Therefore, I predict that it will be 255 Republican and 173 Democrat on November 7th. Of course, my prediction carries absolutely no weight, but neither do the pollsters. Screw ‘em..
As a professional, I'll disagree. A more accurate statement is that no one knows what will happen on Tuesday. I have an educated opinion on that, but no one knows.
The proportions in early voting have changed dramatically. Was that because republicans are voting in record numbers, or was it because a higher proportion of republicans are voting early? No one knows.
The 2016 Presidential Election set a record for lowest response rate to polling in US history. Today's response rate is just over half what is was two years ago. Can we assume the same groups are responding in the same relative proportions, or have some groups withdrawn even more from the responding population than others have? Again, no one knows.
The economy is great - setting records. Do people know this in their personal lives and they will vote based on that? The press is far more biased than ever, openly abandoning any pretense of objectivity. Do voters still trust them, even a little? The thuggish left is far more violent than ever. Are voters afraid to tell the truth to pollsters, or perhaps even more motivated to vote conservative to keep the terrorist/totalitarian left out of power? Has the Antifa violence motivated the dark side that so many leftists have, and that blood lust will bring them to the polls in record numbers? There is a lot going on, but no one knows how everything will play out on Tuesday.
The best we can do is vote, bring other decent people to the polls, volunteer to monitor the polls, work get out the vote phone banks, pray, and BLOAT - buy lots of ammo today.
Will be curious if that holds in GA and FL.
Don’t know about a sin but you don’t want to lie to the pollsters because one of the most powerful means of persuasion is if “everyone one else is doing it”, and going with the winner or “expert opinion” . The scary thing is it suggest that some people will vote for whoever they think will win!
Pysch study after study shows that people change their opinion if they see that the majority are going that way or if they believe an authority is .
There are a number of books that summarize this, I just read Covert Persuasion: Psychological Tactics and Tricks to Win the Game
Trump actually uses some of these techniques, not covertly.
So vote but we need to get out the message that we are not a small group and polling is one way.
Overheard two co-workers saying how angry they are at the left and hope they lose big in the midterms. I live in a county won by Obama and Hillary.
“People are stupid, people are changeable, people don’t make logical connections, people voted for Obama TWICE. It is entirely possible that the dems take the House. We need to prevent it by voting.”
You are absolutely correct.
I work at a very well to do medical devices company on the north shore of Mass. Many many “smart” people in engineering / quality control / manufacturing / etc...
Yet virtually everyone in the company (except for the top executives and a few others like me ... NH workers) vote Dem without giving it a thought. Their hatred of Trump and Repubs is ridiculous. The “Medical Devices” tax was hurting our company badly at first, yet the young workers didn’t care as long Obama was for it, they were as well. Thank goodness it has been repealed.
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE the stupidity of voters. Emotion rules the day now it seems.
I agree. We look at our home phone caller id and if it is out of state or an “unknown number”, we figure, if it is important, they will leave a message. Well, guess what! Robots don’t leave messages. I estimate that if my phone rings 100 times over a few days or a week, we answer no more than 25 or 30 of the calls, where 99% of those are people we know. We LOVE caller ID.
And to think all that started with obama priming the pump just in time for President Trump to reap the rewards. :-)
Real Clear Politics with their averaging of polls claim it makes them more accurate, I think they are deliberately ignoring the problem of their method helps reduce random error, but exacerbates error due to unrepresentative samples. I also wonder if the response rates have gotten low enough that the multiple polls are no longer using independent samples.
They are partially right. To the extent that different polling methods will have slightly different response groups, they have a point.
The error due to unrepresentative samples is not exacerbated, although it becomes a larger proportion of the total error under RCP's methods.
Both are, however, a very small factor in polling error. As for independence, they are still nowhere near losing that.
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