Because it is so close to an election, Republicans do have to weigh the importance of getting their nominee seated or risk losing the legislative branch, or for that matter both. It’s a tightrope and they are walking it without a balance pole.
A word or two to Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly would help, but they are also walking a fine line. They can vote for Kavanaugh and risk the Democrats wrath or they can vote along party lines and more than likely lose their seat. Or, if it goes the way I am seeing it, they can vote against Kavanaugh, increase their vote among women and hold their seat which is the worst of the scenarios.
Flake, Collins and Murkowski will vote for Kavanaugh for two simple reasons. The first is, they know this is a crock and will not destroy the country over it. They also voted for Gorsuch. The second reason is, this isn’t about Trump. I can see Flake wanting to screw Trump, but this isn’t the way to go about doing it.
The left overplayed their hand with no exit strategy.
There is a tremendous danger in permitting 36 year old unverified -- indeed, largely contradicted --allegations about high school misdeeds to define someone's character. If that becomes the standard, then it could fairly be applied judicial nominations at all levels, to politicians...even to ordinary citizens in private life. The Democrats have strong short-term political incentives to do it anyway...but what's the incentive for those Republicans to help establish that as the new standard?
To me, a refusal to let that become the new standard is really the most compelling argument to side with Kavanaugh on this, even if you're a squishy moderate.