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In Kobane, the hand of the Turks was hidden behind jihadi surrogates.

In Afrin the Turks are exposed for the world to see. This is a much weaker position for Turkey strategically, and they are bleeding their credibility in the International arena.

But Turkey’s overt involvement requires more of a hidden hand to deal with, because the geostrategic stakes are so high, when dealing with Turkey itself - NATO itself, NATO’s second largest military, the regional air and logistics hub of Incirlik Air Base, the world’s tenth largest economy, the emerging new “Mothership” of Sunni jihadism, the bulk of the refugees from Syria, land pipeline routes between the Mid-East and Europe, etc..

This requires a careful strategy, for a strategic victory. We can’t responsibly just grab a weapon and run toward the sound of the guns, without preparing for the secondary and tertiary reactions. Getting the USA into an alliance wrecking conflict with Turkey, may well have been the hope of Russian strategists, when they invited Turkey to invade Afrin, by withdrawing their forces, opening the airspace, and likely directly communicating their permission.

Turkey’s poor progress invading into Afrin gives some time for a strategic response. The case is making itself in Capitals around the world, that Turkey has gone off the rails under Erdogan.

People are seriously looking at suspending major weapons programs with Turkey, like the F-35 fighter jet, and the German Leopard tank upgrade. Alternatives to Incirlik are being explored (and to some degree, developed). Political consensus is growing, which would be necessary for major actions later, like suspending NATO membership, placing economic sanctions, or approving covert actions.

Turkey’s invasion into Afrin is crude and blunt. His overt use of jihadi war criminals could be Erdogan’s hubris, that ultimately invites his nemesis.

I agree fully with all your points....you appear to know quite a lot about the entire theater and players....as well as understanding the geostrategic stakes. Thanks so much for commenting as you have.

It is difficult though to see the Kurds get hammered...they have been such a friend to our country, and actually the world....and have for so many years fought to retain their identity in that area.