Posted on 12/04/2017 10:04:52 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
Much of the focus these days is on North Korea's nuclear capabilities, but the more significant point is the prospect of REUNIFICATION OF THE TWO KOREAS. It's interesting to ponder what the implications would be for the region and for the U.S. It would also clue us into why countries like China and Russia behave the way they do with regard to diplomatic negotiations there. They may have complex long-term considerations motivating them.
Some questions to consider regarding the prospects of reunification:
* Does disarmament or the fall of the Kim regime automatically imply reunification with the South? Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North? U.N. peacekeepers?
* Are the South Koreans prepared?
* Does China stand to gain or lose?
* Does Japan find a "united Korea" in their interest?
* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?
* Does historical precedent clue us in to the possibilities? Will Korean reunification go the way of say, East and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall?
I seem to recall reading within the last 12 to 15 months a poll showing approximately 73 or so per cent of South Koreans were not interested in reunification with the Norks. Those numbers most likely have changed since Moon Jae in took office. Frankly, I think Moon is colluding with the North and certainly is acting not in the South’s best interest.
I’ve heard that many in South Korea would like reunification someday, but not anytime soon. The countries are so different, and reunion would place such severe burdens on the South, that any reunification should happen slowly and step by step. At least that’s what I’ve heard from some south Koreans. To see Kim start a war , be defeated, and then see immediate reunification/military occupation, is not what South Korea wants to see happen.
What you say is logically agreeable in it's intent. But in reality, I doubt even Trump can muster the political will to force that outcome, or even the start of it, in the time frame that would protect the failure from democrats and RINOs.
The actual enemy here is China, aided and abetted by Russia.
Kim does nothing without China pulling the string. Disarmament and unification will be offered after going to the brink. The quid pro quo will be American withdrawal from the peninsula and Japan. China plays the long game and they know Trump will not be in office forever.
Agreed, I just hope you mean Pence (or someone like him) in 2024 and not any sooner than that LoL.
Vanity subject? I doubt it. Would you take in your homeless brother if he refuses to bathe and stop drinking? The Sorks enjoy the status quo as long as the US is around. I’d move all our military resources to Pusan. No one here brings up the possibility of implosion.
Like the reunification of Germany, this stands to benefit the communist blunder at the expense of the capitalist success. South Korea stands to gain nothing.
Perhaps a solution could be similar to what happened in Austria after the Four Power Occupation ended in the 50’s Independent, but neutral Austria.
“Well, I know that S. Korean churches for years have been working on contingency plans each to “adopt” different N.Korean villages and to feed and clothe them.”
I remember meeting a South Korean tourist in Russia. She had met some North Korean workers on the train from Vladivostok: “They were so friendly and shared some snacks and food with me!”
And I’m like: “Oh nice, so you were fed by North Koreans?”
And then she realized the irony and started laughing.
Despite slave-like treatment some receive, I suppose North Korean laborers have a lot of nice experiences to gain from being in Russia. It’s even free-er than China in some ways. Spiritually speaking as well.
I’ve heard similar things about Moon.
I have what is a unique perspective on China and South Korea and their thoughts on N. Korea.
A little background: I traveled to China multiple times for an engineering project and over 4 years had many discussions on various topics. Later I traveled to S. Korea over a couple of years where the primary dinner topic was the N. Korea.
China: our history with China did not start at the end of their Civil War and the beginning of their Communist regime. Remember we did not support the faction (Mao) that won that war. Prior to war there was almost reverence toward the US: Boxer Rebellion, WWII, I would bet more Chinese know who Claire Chennault and Jimmy Doolittle were than US citizens. Our problems with China have been in the past 70yrs.
From a 35 yr old London School of Econ graduate:
1. What do you think of the NK young leader. “He is like that teenage relative who lives in your basement because his family threw him out, you are not very proud of him”. “The last thing China needs after the imposing of the one child policy are NK mouths coming over the border to feed”
2. What should be done with NK? From same individual “NK and SK should unify. Bigger trading in Asia”.
My travels to SK led to this response from a Sr SK Businessman: “It will be difficult for one to find support for reunification in the common man of SK. What is in it for them.”
Wow such little accountability or sense of charity for their fellow man. I am not saying bend over backwards and give they have to the suffering children nextdoor — but the general direction of China and South Korea these past few decades has perpetuated a very self-preserving, materialistic mentality among the population.
Thanks for passing that on.
That is two questions, not one.
Does "disarmament" automatically imply reunification with the South? If by that you mean North Korea pulling 100% back from its nuclear weapons and missile ambitions, the answer is no, it would not in and of itself imply reunification of Korea. I am not sure what else you mean by disarmament.
Does the "fall" of the Kim regime imply reunification with the South?
That is again two questions, because there are two ways the fall of the regime in North Korea could happen.
If the regime in North Korea fell, was wiped out as a force in control of anything, by a military conflict, the South would likely have no choice but to proceed with reunification, whether or not it wanted to.
But if the regime in North Korea fell by complete internal implosion of its control, the answers as to reunification all require knowing just what that implosion means inside North Korea. Not knowing the exact context leaves to many questions to give a clear answer about reunification.
"Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North?"
I take it that question means if "disarmament" or the failure of the regime in North Korea led to a reunification, what would there be of any U.S. military presence? If the context you are thinking of is something else, then you need to explain it. If it is the former, the answer would lie in what formal agreements were asked of us by the Korean government, and agreeable to us.
"U.N. peacekeepers?"
Again, the answer would differ depending exactly on the circumstances. If there was still a separate political entity in North Korea, even if it "disarmed", the two sides might agree on U.N. peacekeepers, or they might not, and even if asked the U.N., with possible vetoes from either the U.S., China or Russia might not agree to have U.N. peacekeepers there. Who can say? Who has a crystal ball?
"Are the South Koreans prepared?"
No and yes. They only have very rough plans, but they saw what it cost West Germany and they'd rather that their economy not have the burden. How much they might ask others for support will depend so much on exactly how reunification became possible, what exactly were the conditions in North Korea they had to deal with, how secure or precarious were any continuing security concerns, and many other things.
"Does China stand to gain or lose?"
Again your impartial questions leave us to again assume you are referring purely to "reunification"?
Again, the answer depends on how reunification comes about, what is the Chinese context in the events that lead to it, where does the combination of those things place the relationship between China and what is now South Korea, and - depending on the course of events, does China see the resulting situation with Korea as an armed adversary, or would reunified Korea be just a trading partner, no more and no less than South Korea is today. When none of the events by which reunification comes about have happened, it is mostly a guessing game as far as what, in the end, it will mean to China.
"Does Japan find a "united Korea" in their interest?"
Yes and no. In part yes, as Japan would hope for more trade with a reunified Korea, but that reunified Korea will, in due time, be a bigger economy than Japan. But, again, depending on how exactly reunification comes about (military conflict or implosion) and China's position in the events, it could, possibly leave, Japan and South Korea in close military alliance. China could make that more likely if again it sought, militarily, to save the regime in North Korea from falling, or if it stepped in to actually take over an imploded North Korea.
"What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?"
Again questions that defy answers when the actual context of the situation is unknown.
"Does historical precedent clue us in to the possibilities?
Not much.
"Will Korean reunification go the way of say, East and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall?"
No one has a crystal ball.
Thanks for your response! Illuminating with regard to possible attitudes of the surrounding Asian countries.
I’m finding there are quite a lot of papers (in English) available online written by Russian academics about their country’s relationship with and vision for North Korea or a reunited Korea. Will have to post an excerpt from one soon.
Feeding and clothing them is a given and International leaders have already determined this in the equation......as well as upgrading their farmers equipment so they can sustain food for their people. But feeding and clothing them is just the beginning and will not address the issues of the two nations integrating.....which go far and above that.
As for being in Russia working......back breaking dirty work and the little money they earn goes to Fat Boys coffers. I see nothing positive about them taking on jobs nobody in Russia will do....except they might have a bit more food.
......”At least that’s what I’ve heard from some south Koreans. To see Kim start a war , be defeated, and then see immediate reunification/military occupation, is not what South Korea wants to see happen.”.......
I’ve heard this often as well......and it won’t be what N.Koreans want ‘at first’....people forget any who go there will be seen as an enemy as these are a brainwashed people to believe that is so.... Especially Americans....it won’t be a pretty scene even trying to help and will require those who know the language and culture....likely many of the defectors will be helpful.
I also believe there are more “Officials” who would defect if given the chance...so that they can retain a post in any New N.Korean Government. Doubtful any would want them back if left up to the people.
“China would annex it before they let that happen.................”
All the North Koreans have accomplished is setting up a hereditary kingdom, with a dictator at its head.
Then of course theirs the gulags and work camps as well..’thousands and thousands’ there for many years under the most atrocious conditions who only know what it is to obey the guards and never make a decision on their own......how to reach them is another population that will require great strategic planning.
I recall one defector from the cap that when he escaped and saw the farmers working in the fields he thought he was looking at paradise...and those farmers were using horse drawn carts or working by hand.
When they go to the South they see such wastefulness of food and such an abundance that it brings great confusion why more isn’t done for those in the camps and nation they left. It’s a heart wretching and gut wretching experience that none of us can even slightly touch on.
Plus N.Korea also ‘always’ sells whatever they make and can duplicate regarding missiles and other defense weaponry to other rogue and dangerous countries....N.Korea being a conduit for Russia and China....who are of course now sleeping together for a time.
I agree with you on the differences. Frankly, when I am in South Korea I feel it is more prosperous than the U.S. Certainly it feels like the America of the Reagan era, not the economic malaise and debt we are living through now.
That being said, and despite the Confucian ethics that would eschew the flaunting of wealth, it seems a lot of South Koreans do measure their self-worth by how well they dress and what kinds of things they purchase and consume. I know the first time I visited Korea after not having been there for 15 years or more, I felt woefully underdressed. I now take suits with me to wear in Seoul, even as a tourist.
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