[jjsheridan5]

Both meat and it’s substitute will be more expensive in the short run.

You are right in that it will probably be more than 30 years, but the free market will eventually win out. One thing people don't consider is this: we are so used to "synthetic" things being inferior to the authentic, but in the future, technology is going to enable creation of things vastly superior to, and not replaceable by, conventional means of production. For example, at some point "printing" is going to allow for an infinite choice of architectural designs for buildings and houses, most of which are simply not feasible using conventional means of construction. Whereas in the short run, printed houses will be inferior to real ones, in the long run, "real" houses will simply be uncompetitive in quality (or price) with the synthetic.

At some point down the road, we will be able to get perfectly marbled, perfect cuts, of steak for, essentially, no cost. At this point, there simply will be no market for conventional steak which will always carry with it significant costs due to the cost of raising cattle.

As always, the adage that we overestimate what will be done in the short run, and underestimate what will be done in the long run, applies. These things are going to be here, but probably not in the short run.

[Netz]

I agree with your analysis but this sentence seems a bit off:

“At some point down the road, we will be able to get perfectly marbled, perfect cuts, of steak for, essentially, no cost”.

No cost, hard to believe...