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Heya GSC...I am not of the opinion that this is hostile. I think this is standard human error. I'll reserve my right to change my mind as more information comes in. In a post 9/11 world, it is hard to rule out completely terrorism. But I think it unlikely.

See this other thread with HT Freeper TXnMA who posted this update: (click here to see updated AIS data graphed at full resolution with a corrected time and location of collision, along with speed data on the ACX Crystal tells an entirely different story.

(I have reposted your graphic here TXnMA, and shrunk it just a little to fit on one page, hope that is okay):

TXnMA: Based on an apparent misinterpretation of "Japan Local Time", the collision was originally reported as at location, "A", which is at the end of ACX Crystal's bizarre maneuvering. Correction of the time now places the collision location at position "B", which is where ACX Crystal first deviated from her normal course with a 90-degree turn to starboard. (IOW, the bizarre maneuvering followed -- not preceded-- the collision.) Addition of ACX's speed info now tells a totally different story: it now appears that after the collision, ACX Crystal (somewhat belatedly) reversed course, and approached and circled the USS Fitzgerald at dead slow speed -- apparently offering aid and assistance.

This scenario makes far more sense to me just from a commonsense perspective.

At point B, where the updated time data shows the collision occurring, the color of the circles along the path indicating speed shows the speed of the containership dropped from 18-25 knots down to 5-12 knots in two increments, consistent with a collision, in my opinion. This just seems right to me. The challenge of having a 30,000 ton sluggish containership maneuver and ram an 8,000+ ton speedy and agile destroyer (a class of vessel that has a well deserved sobriquet of "Greyhound of The Sea") is a stretch. Not impossible, but a stretch.

The skipper at the very least is going to be disciplined, probably the OOD, and others as well, and severely. Even if this were hostile, they will still be disciplined. Some people are offended at me for saying so, but having grown up in a Navy family, served a tour myself, and taken an interest in naval history, I have seen this before...many, many, times before. This isn't the same as hitting an uncharted seamount or colliding with another ship under combat situations.

I wish it weren't so. There is so much about today's Navy that I find appalling, but I have no desire to see proof of it in poor execution of operating procedures, especially with so much loss of life.

Here's an updated version of the above plot -- including the actual AIS data for the ACX Crystal, and zoomed in on the point of collision:

...and scaled more to your liking... '-)

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Plotting the course arrow with each point is instructive. The container ship was doing 18+ knots on an easterly course, then -- 10 minutes before the collision -- apparently, the autopilot made a programmed 20-degree course change to port (to 70 degrees) and maintained 18+ knots. Presumably, that change was toward the Fitzgerald.

At 16:30Z, immediately post-collision, the ACX Crystal lost 1.2 knots in speed, and was deflected 18 degrees to starboard. To me, that is not inconsistent with a glancing collision on the port bow.

It's been widely reported (or speculated) that the ACX Crystal was on autopilot. Reduced speed, plus a 90-degree collision-avoidance turn to starboard -- with the vessel quickly brought back to its 70-degree pre-collision course and speed -- would, to this landlubber, appear to be expected autopilot behavior.

It's also been widely reported or speculated that the entire crew was asleep. If so, it's reasonable to speculate that the collision woke the crew, someone was sent forward to check for collision damage, and when it was reported back, the u-turn was made that placed the vessel back in the collision vicinity (at dead-slow speed [red dots]) almost an hour after the collision.

Reportedly, it was at that time, some 50 minutes after the collision, that ACX Crystal radioed in the report of the incident. (Cause of the confusion in times?)

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That raises a BIG question: Did the USS Fitzgerald radio in a report of the collision? If so, at what time was that report made?