Net oil imports: 5.0 million bpd
Anticipated rise in production (by 2022): 3.5 million bpd.
Net oil imports, 2022: 1.5 million bpd.
Petroleum use should be pretty steady, based on past decade and future fuel economy.
Pretty close to energy independence.
We could be energy independent right now, beginning with a higher price for oil domestically produced if we simply cut off oil imports altogether. That higher price would then come steadily down as production increases and gets cheaper. Not advocating that for a number of reasons but it would happen were it done that way.
Odd thing: According to their underlying projections, U.S. oil production would increase so much at $70 per barrel, we’d become oil exporters. At $80 per barrel, we’d be exporting 2 million bpd.
At importing 5 million bpd, we run a $90 billion trade deficit on crude oil. (We actually do much better still because we make a lot of money refining oil.) In 2005, that deficit was $270 billion. At $80 a barrel, we’d make a $50 billion surplus (plus about $90 on refinement).