Almost right.
Kill it 21 Jan. Have the bill on Trump’s desk to kill it.
But there DOES have to be a grandfathering period for those on it, and even those about to be on it (reaching an age where they need coverage outside parents), because the GOP replacement isn’t ready.
Three years sounds like a lot. But really that number isn’t absolute. It depends on when the replacement is created. I’d guess the way to deal with it is two tiered. The replacement becomes the vehicle new enrollees choose, and present enrollees wait until their plan expires.
Off the top of my head I would guess the GOP replacement gets its vote late in 2017. So healthcare.gov continues to operate probably about 2 yrs past that date and then dies. This would be less than 3 yrs, but not a lot less.
Least you're thinking in the right direction. One thing no one considers in this argument? The state insurance commissions, who are charged with approving all plan changes.
So, let's just say that Congress does end zerocare, as you suggest, by the end of January 2017. By then, it is entirely too late to setup any new plans for 2017 (plan changes are usually reviewed/approved by about the middle of the year prior to them taking effect). Any plan changes would not occur until at least 2018, AFTER the insurance carriers have had the chance to run the #'s, put together corresponding plans, etc. and then get approval from the state insurance commissions.
Sounds feasible, right? Well, maybe, but not likely. Considering the fact that the changes mean COMPLETE changes across the board, that also means re-fitting the carriers themselves to meet the demands of the new system/plans and to be sure their internal infrastructures are ready, employees staffed, etc. If Congress ends zerocare by the end of January 2017, the best possible scenario is we see the changes take effect in 2019, but most likely not until 2020.