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Predicting the future is always difficult and I have failed many times.

This election cycle however, so far I’ve been better than any of the pundits or analysts I have seen, not because I think I’m a genius but I think because they have just been unwilling to view this election in the proper context for whatever reason, and because they have been unwilling to recognize just how dominant a force Trump and more importantly the message he is offering is connecting with the electorate.

When Trump first announced, I wrote it off as Trump being Trump, just out there self aggrandizing for publicity for whatever next thing he was going to do. I didn’t take him seriously at all. However, a few weeks later, I watch one of his rally’s unfiltered, and while his speech was rambling, his delivery halting and amateurish, what I saw was a guy who had presence, appeared authentic in his desires and was connecting with the crowd. He also had a message, that while being clumsily delivered at that time, was going to resonate with a large portion of the electorate. From that moment forward, I threw away my preconceived notion that Trump was just self promoting for alternate reasons and recognized this guy definitely was going to be a force to be dealt with.

After watching most of the Republican field, it became very obvious, very quickly, that Trump was probably the only one that had a prayer to win the White House. Jeb, with all his money and connections was saddled with the last name of Bush in a time when the electorate had had enough of them... to top it off he was too mild for an electorate that was fed up.. and he had obvious ring rust and a lot of bad advisors who were more than willing to spend that warchest for him and provide little if any results. Without Trump in the mix, perhaps things would have been different, with him in there as an Alpha male with the X factor, Bush had no shot. Rubio was no serious threat in spite of what some believed, while young and attractive, his message wasn’t going to get him home, and his inexperience was going to get hims slaughtered, and true to form, Christie eviscerated him in that debate... now granted he eviscerated him in a way I doubt Hillary would have, but Rubio was going to be manhandled just as easily had he had the nomination. Cruz while he had the Red Meat that many of the conservative wing of the party liked, he also was just not a likable guy, and I know there are a lot of Cruz supporters here, and I argued with many of them... not because I thought Cruz was hugely wrong on policy stands, but that he was not going to be able to take down HIllary. Again, had Trump NOT been running, the story may have been different.. and as the campaign went on, Cruz made several bad decisions and missteps that came across in ways that were seriously off putting.. his frustration at losing, a contest he clearly thought was his to lose, became obvious and he didn’t handle it well at all.

I personally recognized early on, that to defeat Hillary, the republicans could not just put up a typical republican... If they did, what we would wind up with would be a Carl Rove type race... where both sides yield the majority of the country and then fight for a handful of states trying to thread the needle to win. Now, I am not bashing Carl Rove here... his pattern worked in 2000, Bush actually lost the popular vote, but was able to get the White House by the EC... and in 2004 it also worked though this time Bush did win the popular vote as well... However it was not going to work in 2016. It didn’t work in 2008, but honestly I don’t think any strategy would have worked in 2008...

The Bush administration had allowed itself to be painted by the left, largely without response for at least 4 years, and in reality 8 years in a light that was not going to have any republican likely to win.

2012 though was a winnable election, and this thread the needle approach failed, because it was small ball. 2016 the Republicans were not likely to win, if they continued to play small ball. They needed bold, brash, national, and aggressive play. They also needed someone who Hillary could not paint as a boogie man.

It was clear from the offset, that despite the electorate, both sides saying very loudly NO CLINTON, NO BUSH.. that the Democrats were going to put up Hillary. She has made sure, after 2008, that all the right people were in all the right places to ensure no one else had any shot of taking “her” nomination. This meant that the election was always going to be about getting the electorate to vote AGAINST the republican, not for Hillary. Hillary is a terrible campaigner, and not a likable person, she has no personality, comes out inauthentic and fake, and doesn’t have one natural ounce of retail politicking talent. So the strategy the democrats would have to engage in from the onset was going to be, paint the other guy as too dangerous or hateful etc etc to be president.

This was the nail in the coffin for Cruz, and really any other R that was really in the running in my mind. Cruz’s shutting down of the government, was the perfect foil to leverage to make him appear too dangerous for voters, particularly among those dependent on government programs. As much as folks like Hannity and others like to lie about this, the government was going to default in October had the republicans not ended the shut down. There were debt payments due that month that were far larger than their revenues were going to be able to cover. Had the shut down not ended when it did, you literally were looking at a federal government default on obligations. And as much as those of us with conservative bents may not like it, medicare and SSN are two of those huge obligations, and don’t think for one minute that the retiree class wasn’t well aware just how close that default was to reality.

Trump was the only player who Hillary could not paint as the boogie man, and who had the will and personality to call her on her malfeasance. She would certainly try to, but Trump, because he had been in the public eye for nearly 40 years, and had been in many peoples homes weekly, people already had a perception of him, and because they did, attempts to paint him as this or that, would not work because most people would simply say, no, that doesn’t fit the person I have seen for decades.... Whereas any other pol they can quickly define them because most people don’t know who they are.

So long story short, I predicted not only Trump’s dominant victory for the nomination, but also predicted his path to victory and I stick to it to this day.

Trump will not only win, but win big. I have felt and stated from day one, Hillary has a functional max of about 15 states and 180 EC votes on her BEST day.. and Hillary is not having many good days at all... and that the more likely scenario was about 10 states and around 100-120 EC votes come Nov 8. I stated then and still believe, that come Oct, it will be so obvious that she is going to lose that only the most ardent Democratic supporters will be the only people willing even voice the opinion she could win. The discussion won’t be will Trump win, but how large will his margin be. Dems will be scrambling to just hold onto state no one no one thought would be in play.

You are free to search the backlog for my messages on this.

This is where things are today, Trump’s flood gates are starting to open, and when they do, the polls will show a tidal wave of support. The rise in the polls that started earlier this month were Trump having the republican base come home (getting his support back up to traditional levels, about 90%) which I predicted as well.. Hillary only looked like she had a race because up until recently, the never trumpers and others still bitter their guy didn’t win weren’t willing to support him yet... they had to work through their grief and anger, but there was no doubt by election day they would come home.. Trump has had a solid lead among I’s the entire race, and the only reason Hillary had any polling lead/close race was due to Trumps republican support being softer than average.. once it came home, he was going to start to take the race.

As he starts to take the race, those who have been unwilling to admit they support him, for social or professional reasons will start to begin to admit that they too intend to support him and you will see his numbers start to grow sharply.

Where we are at the race, or were up until Hillary’s horrible weekend of 9/9-9/11, was Trump was starting rise in the polls as these events began to unfold, and he the momentum he had lost from the stupid Kahn stuff in late July through mid August, returned. (Hillary has never had momentum not for one second in this race... Trump did stall his momentum for about 2 weeks with that kahn nonsense, which was what dems and pundits foolishly perceived as her gaining momentum, breaking away) And once he recognized and adjusted, it took a little time for his momentum to build again... which by early September/Labor day was clearly back and evident in the polling.

Trump was on track to take the obvious lead in the race right about the time of the first debate, without Hillary’s bad weekend... but that bad weekend just moved everything up. While people are still in denial about, and polls are always a bit lagging, at this point Trump is CLEARLY in the drivers seat, and depending on the polling you wish to look at, is either a small state away from being above 270, or already has 270 locked up... Me, I think its pretty clear Trump already has 270 locked up and is building strong on that. Within a week, even with the huge manipulations that the MSM is still engaging in, it will be difficult for anyone to argue going into the debate on the 26th that Trump is winning.

The debate is the when the flood gates were going to go full bore... as no one will be tuning in to watch Hillary. Unless you are a first time voter, you know Hillary and if you were going to support her, you would already be doing so. She can have the debate performance of a lifetime and she won’t get 1 more vote. Only folks already committed to Hillary will give a damn about what she does or says. Everyone else is watching for Trump because they have already decided to support him, or they just need to see if he is reasonable enough for them to support him, or if he really is this crazy dangerous racist the MSM and Dems have painted him to be. If he comes out looking reasonable, they will support him and the race is not only over, but its a landslide victory. If they decide he isn’t reasonable, then they will either stay home or vote third party... few if any will likely decide to support Hillary either way.

If the latter happens, then we will be going into October with a possible horse race finish. I still thing Trump wins, but its a lot tighter ball game.. and if it comes down to a one or two states make or break the election, fraud could easily toss it. If the prior happens and Trump looks reasonable... October is about Trump trying to see if his coattails can bring along with him gains in the Senate and House.

Personally I expect gains in both houses either way.

Anyway, that’s been my prediction from day one, Trump with a big win.. to date the election has played out largely how I expected. Even Trump’s dip in August... I didn’t know what would cause Trump to stumble, but there was no doubt as a neophyte and in a long race, that he was going to make a mistake here and there. He did, he recognized it and recovered from it quickly.

I still think Hillary cannot get more than 42/43% of the vote on her best day, and the only chance she has ever had at a win is to depress the Trump vote... Trump on the other hand is not hampered by any functional max like Hillary, his numbers have no ceiling, fundamentally, beyond having to be 100 minus Hillary’s. Obviously in a 3 or 4 way race he won’t get that much, but there is no functional limit beyond that for his numbers... Only way Hillary gets above low 40s is if turnout is abyssmal.

I don’t think Hillary can get 60 Million voters to show up for her on election day nationally. I really don’t.

I have also predicted and stand by this as wel, Trump will dominate the rust belt, OH, PA, MI, WI, IN and IA... I expect him to handily take those.. I believe MN and IL are the only 2 states Hillary has a shot at holding... could I be wrong, and Trump come up a state shy or two from my predictions? Maybe, but I think he’s going to just blow the doors off in those states, as he plays well to the electorates there who have indeed taken the brunt of the free trade globalism that has dominated the last 20-30 years or so. However, even if I am off by a state or two, There is no way Hillary can win if she looses most of those states... there is no path to 270 for her if she drops 3 or 4 of those states that Barry took.

Anyway, that’s why I am where I am at, and so far the election is pretty much going the way I saw it from the get go, not because I think I am perfect at prognosticating, but because it was easily recognizable early on, this election was going to be Nationalism vs Globalism and the Globalism argument was going to be made by one of the worst retail politicians ever to be nominated by a national party.