Posted on 05/05/2016 11:41:16 AM PDT by Peter ODonnell
This sudden and orchestrated list of events -- Cruz drops out, Kasich drops out, Romney not to attend GOP Convention, Bush family not to attend -- and others beyond -- suggests to this observer that the other shoe is about to drop.
We must be careful at Free Republic to realize that a prevailing mood here is not necessarily an indication of a strong prevailing mood elsewhere in American political culture. It might be at best what one third of one half are thinking, in other words, what one-sixth of the voters accept to be orthodox self-evident truth.
The fact that you and I believe something does not make it true or even feasible that many of the other five-sixths of the political spectrum accept or believe it.
So it would not surprise me, and it should not surprise you, if the following scenario or something like it unfolds.
First, the Republican Party will announce that the Cleveland convention is no longer happening. They will say that they accept the nomination of Donald Trump to run as president is inevitable but that he cannot have the endorsement of the Republican Party. That would no doubt lead to numerous large legal battles fought mainly at the state level. But as a political fait accompli, if the party mechanism does not move into the convention centre, then it is basically de facto a Donald Trump Independent for President convention with whatever supporters of his decide to show up. What they do and decide will then determine how the Trump campaign proceeds although if any wind of this reaches the Trump forces before mid- to late May, clearly there are legal problems they need to investigate on a number of levels.
One of those will be, how does Donald Trump get his name on ballots? How is he to be styled on the ballots?
Meanwhile, I would expect the Republican Party to announce a new and different convention location, wherein delegates appointed by a process that they fully control would choose a nominee. That person would then go onto the ballot as the Republican depending on the outcome of any legal challenges brought by Donald Trump.
One really has to wonder if, confronted with this situation, Donald Trump would want to go before the voters as a Republican anyway.
This process would create more or less the same dynamics as the 1992 election. There would be a maverick iconoclast (like Perot), a relatively unpopular Republican establishment candidate, and a Clinton. But of course, not the charismatic and seductive one, but the old one with baggage and huge question marks (in the 20-20 hindsight that we all have, of course, the first one had those same attributes, except not so many people knew).
So would that be a cakewalk for Hillary Clinton? Probably not. Both of her opponents would easily be able to rebut her assertions that the Republican process was anti-democratic. Bernie Sanders proves that point, more people are actually voting for him than for Hillary in most states so far. But he has no path to the nomination either.
Do you folks think this could happen? I think the tells are pretty obvious. Or will the party go through the motions of lukewarm support but spring a third option after the convention on the grounds that Trump is trailing badly in the polls? (if that happens)
Of course, one thing would forestall all of this -- Ted Cruz as running mate. There's no way the GOP would roll the dice against 70% of the primary voters, they might try it against 45%.
This is just my opinion. I have no insider knowledge.
(cue the History Channel bad hair pictures)
BIG YAWN.... zzzzz zzzzz zzzzzz
The convention is going to happen. Please tell the police to get their riot gear prepared. The Lefty Loonies are going to come out in force. They have months to prepare for their "demonstrations."
Correct, and two reasons that bear special mention: (1) whomever triggers or aggravates a GOP party schism will suffer enduring ill will and loss of political career and influence; and (2), if sufficiently aggrieved by a party split and loss of a fair shot at the Presidency, Trump could make life miserable for whomever is responsible.
That is a very interesting theory. Perhaps that is paussible that it could end like that. For me it is the opposite, I sense all hell will break lose during the convention and Donald’s life is in danger. No matter which method the Establishment chose, no convention or a convention. It is their strong desire and greed to continue on the same path, and to HELL with anyone who blocks them.
Speaker of the House Ryan just stated on the news he can’t support Trump yet....he wants to support the nominee but not yet at this point because of the republican platform that unifies all needs to be presented by Trump...
We need a standard barrier who will unify all the party and the nominee needs to do that. Can Trump turn this around and unite the party???
The northern border is already secure mainly from the vast desire of Canadians to stay in Canada.
It’s another mystery I am investigating, I have ruled out weather and sport so far.
Republicans = Whigs
Republicans = Whigs
Do you think elected GOP officials would survive this?
Sander voters will not accept him on the ticket.
You aren't giving them enough credit, they'll go for a 2500 of 2472 delegates to secure the nomination.
It is strange that so many people are not going to the convention.
And I luv your solution to the problem-Ted Cruz as his VP :)
He was the other outside the GOPe hates- Boehner referring to Cruz as "Lucifer in the flesh" as well as his (Cruz's) long history of run-ins with McConell and the rest of the GOPe tell the real story.
They (GOPe) never backed Cruz. Rubio and Kasich staying in the race prove this.
Cruz was trying to thread a needle, and win on his own , in spite of GOPe sabotage. He should be credited for getting as far as he did.
And from the beginning I have thought that Trump Cruz running 1st, 2nd protected them both by keeping the GOPe at bay.
Also from the start- everyone thought Trump/Cruz would be a dream ticket. Nothing has changed.
Cruz on board would convey that Trump is willing to be constrained by the Constitution (most important), would bring in 75-80% of the electorate, would provide Trump with Cruz's excellent ground game and fund raising ability, would give Trump someone who knows Senate procedures and rules backwards and forwards who would fight tooth and nail to get things done in the Senate.
With all this said - I realize it would require an epic meeting and letting bygones be bygones for this to occur- along with acknowleging that on some issues- they will have to agree to disagree.
It all comes down to how much they want to win- because I think it's lights out/game over for Hillary and the GOPe if Trump and Cruz start working together for the good of the nation.
Either way- Trump should be leery of having anyone be VP who has any kind of long history backing GOPe in their past.
If he turns tail on the wall he loses his base of support.
Short answer, no. Irreconcilable differences .
In the immortal words of Capt. Quint: “Go on, try it!”
Political conventions are huge, drunken orgies, and rich Republicans and Democrats love them. There will be a convention in Cleveland.
In our dreams I think 2nd Div. .....I don’t think that Cruz would give up his Senate seat for VP.....but I can dream just the same.
There are so many things happening in the election that remind me of the 2010 US senatorial election here in Alaska. Just replace Trump for Joe Miller and the AK Republican party for the the US Republican party and you will see the parallels. All we need now is a murkowski type put up for write in.
Really? That sort of thing was barely possible in the 19th century. Today, with all the electronic media it's impossible that such a ploy would work.
Maybe Area 57 is the REALLY, REALLY secret base with the aliens, and Area 51 is a Potemkin Village just to get attention? :>)
Interesting theory, but from my observations of the Republican party for the past 20 years I've noticed that it has 2 terrible qualities:
They're lazy
They're spoiled
It would take a lot of work and effort to do something like this. These people aren't willing to do anything much more than write lofty columns in fake Conservative magazines and websites.
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