“the establishment does not want him or any other outsider winning the nomination”
Obviously that goes for Trump too.
The key is that the GOPe cannot throw out the votes from the primaries after asking people to participate.
If Trump has a large lead he will get the GOPe delegates’ votes on the first ballot- at a small price.
If it’s closer he’ll get their votes on a later ballot at a higher cost.
Ted would have to nearly tie Trump for the GOPe to give him the nomination- even if they wanted him.
They cannot throw them out on the first ballot. I agree.
The second ballot, they have to give a lot of weight to the voters.
Once it appears the convention is deadlocked, though, it will be easy for the people to see that they need some kind of process that goes beyond the numbers of delegates.
They’ll need a tie-breaker, and that’s when the establishment will creep in.
The Rockefeller Republican crew are, if anything, survivalists. The overwhelming majority of R primary voters want the guy with the most votes to get the nomination. The special people will never fly in the face of that. They do not have the balls.
Additionally, Trumps favorable/unfavorables will get better each time he speaks without saying Lying Ted, Menstrual Megyn or Low Energy Jeb.
Trump will roll from here. Cruz should shut it down. Kasich should join the democrat party and be done with it.
“If Trump has a large lead he will get the GOPe delegates’ votes on the first ballot- at a small price.
If it’s closer he’ll get their votes on a later ballot at a higher cost.
Ted would have to nearly tie Trump for the GOPe to give him the nomination- even if they wanted him.”
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I agree with this. Never in the history of the GOP, going back to the early 1850s, has a candidate with over 90% of the needed delegates going into the convention been denied the nomination. Trump may get to 1237, but at a bare minimum he will go to Cleveland with far over 90% of the needed 1237, probably 95% or more.