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Thanks for the comment.

“Airfare, however, is something that should more accurately follow oil prices. Prices may not come down much (people are used to certain prices, might as well increase profit margins a bit), but you generally tend to see more deals or short-term cheap flights.”

This argument is based on a permanent lowering of fuel prices. I’m sure a lot of people are taking a wait and see attitude on that.

More deals and cheap flights, and lower fares later, will presumably lead to increased ridership and flights. Wouldn’t that eventually lead to more aircraft orders? You are right to mention lead times, so I imagine it might take a few years.

In the long-term, yes. IF oil prices stay low, but who knows what they'll do?

I'll admit, I don't pay that much attention to the shows. Most of the content goes in on ear and out the other. I do all sorts of boring shows: dental, accountant, pharma, etc etc. Lots of technical stuff that doesn't interest me, aside from hearing the presenter say "Now let's watch this video." or some cue like that for me to do something. Some of the things I did take away from the Aviation MRO show was that most companies agree oil prices don't really show up in aircraft orders, whether low or high. I was a little surprised at that as well. Several of the newer aircraft are moving into longer times before major required maintenance, so mro companies aren't too happy about that!