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“the macro evidence, which shows no evidence of a significant increase overall, is that there were other factors besides oil prices that were holding everybody’s consumption back, such as slower income growth and more precautionary saving.”

Milton Friedman advanced the idea that people consume out of their “permanent income.” That may apply here.

I think the Obama economy has been weak in terms of producing full-time private sector jobs. Fracking, which the Democrats oppose, has been the only bright spot that I know about. This may be a good time for precautionary saving.

A robust, growing private sector economy should lead to a lot of spending. Not just spending from income growth, but spending out of optimism for the future.

Today’s low gasoline prices is like getting a raise. But how long will it last?

Anyone know how the RV industry is doing? Some people might be tempted to buy an RV now due to lower gasoline prices. But they will be hammered if prices go back up.

Have lower oil prices led to lower priced air fair yet? Belief in a permanent reduction in fuel prices will lead to many changes including new aircraft purchases by the airlines.

Thanks to government (Obama, Fannie Mae, possibly the Fed), we had, and presumably still have, an oversupply of housing. How long will that last? Excess government debt may lead to higher taxes. An aging population spends differently.

I have little doubt that fracking and low oil/gasoline prices have helped keep us out of the grave that Obama is digging for America. But he is still digging, and Hillary or Bernie will do the same.

Have lower oil prices led to lower priced air fair yet? Belief in a permanent reduction in fuel prices will lead to many changes including new aircraft purchases by the airlines.

Actually, that's not true at all. I work in AV, and we've done some shows for different aviation groups (just did a big mro convention), with many repair companies, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers giving presentations. Cheap oil helps them in terms of short term profit, but aircraft purchases don't correlate to oil prices at all. They are actually more in line with US gdp and similar factors. Aircraft purchases are generally planned 3-5 years in advance, and oil prices are a tiny fraction of the formula they use.

Airfare, however, is something that should more accurately follow oil prices. Prices may not come down much (people are used to certain prices, might as well increase profit margins a bit), but you generally tend to see more deals or short-term cheap flights.