[econjack]

The reconciliation between this micro evidence, which suggests that consumers did spend much of the windfall, and the macro evidence, which shows no evidence of a significant increase overall, is that there were other factors besides oil prices that were holding everybody’s consumption back, such as slower income growth and more precautionary saving.

I think this is the correct interpretation. Those who see gasoline expenses as a larger percentage of their monthly income (Uber drivers?) have spent that windfall on higher consumption of other things. People who don't use much gasoline have not directly benefited. The bigger drag has been piss-poor federal spending/taxation policy goals which has put everyone who earns an income on the defensive. If you're on welfare, you've seen a 31% increase in your payments since Dufus came into office, so you're on a spending roll. If you're on SS like me, the increase is 0.2%, so you tend to hold spending in check 'cuz you don't know what the Chief Idiot is going to do. It's likely worse for business planning under such conditions of uncertainty.

[Ozark Tom]

All the increases in prices due to higher energy costs are still priced into the goods on the shelf. The energy prices have fallen on the front end, but the savings are not passed along as lower prices to the end user, at least not yet. Diesel is in the $3 versus $5 dollar range; but, surcharges added for fuel adjustments have yet to be rescinded. This is where more competitors would spur movement.

Shale oil will provide a cap to upward movement, although crude may need to approach $70 rather than $50, for sufficient financing to spring forth in support.