Well, after a good start in Iowa, Emerson has not been terrifically accurate. Second, Wisconsin has not been solid Trump. Carson led there, and the RCP average (admittedly based on two older Marquette polls) is Trump +5. Don’t forget WI is an “open primary,” where Cruz does the absolute worst of the three types (closed caucus, closed primary, open primary-—although AZ was a closed primary and Cruz lost that).
I think WI is somewhat close and the GOPe will throw out every single thing they have, including Mr. Dropout Scott Walker and the “Next President of the United States” Paul Ryan, to derail Trump there.
Nationally, it’s FAUX, as opposed to Reuters where Trump is pushing 40% and has a double digit lead over Lyin Ted.
After I became disillusioned with RealClearPolitics I looked around for other poll tracking sites. I probably shouldn’t even admit this, but I found that HuffPo does a pretty good job. Unlike RCP, HuffPo averages all the polls. Also, the chart tells you up front how recently the poll was updated, which I find convenient.
Right now HuffPo has Trump at 35 in WI, and Rubio is still running second with 21. The poll was updated 15 hrs ago.
Here’s the link, in case you want to have a look:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-primaries