He’s tailor-made for NY and he’ll carry it in a landslide in the primary.
If he can’t get above 50% forget about the fall.
Primary yes - it's his. General no, there are not enough people upstate and Long Island has changed from the Republican stronghold it was in the 80s to a purple mess, thanks to all the immigrants from Columbia/Venezuela/Honduras/El Salvador plus it's heavy teacher/union population.
He's not winning NY. South Jersey hates him as does Trenton and Newark so he's not winning NJ either.