Super Saturday Thoughts, VANITY

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/la/louisiana_republican_presidential_primary-4074.html ^

[PA-LU Student]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_Louisiana_Republicans.pdf

[PA-LU Student]

>I just wondered if anybody else had noticed something. In Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, and Kentucky Trump went in tonight with Yuuge leads, and in Kansas had a 12 point lead which dropped after super Tuesday to only six points, and Cruz won by 25 points. In Maine Cruz won by 13 points. In Louisiana Trump went in with and average lead of 15 points, under preformed in his numbers and only won by 4 points, and in Kentucky was leading by Yuuge numbers according to Trump Supporters and only won that one by four. It seems like the Donald is starting to lose, but that can't be because he always wins and never loses. Tonight was a big night for Cruz. He essentially kept the states he lost in close, thereby mitigating the delegate gains of Trump, and then beat Donald handily in the other two states making delegate jumps to catch Trump. He now is only behind Donald by 75 delegates, which lets be honest is very clearly with in the realm of competitiveness. It also seems to blunt the momentum of Trump. Of course that is my humble opinion. What does every one else think?

[kik5150]

Trump fatigue setting in.

[fooman]

looks like cruz won 64 delegates to trumps 49.

[kik5150]

Trump has alienated the supporters of all he has attacked with insults. As the field narrows, those other voters are going to Cruz. When the race gets down to either Trump or Cruz, Cruz will win.

[PA-LU Student]

That has been my thought all along.

[arl295]

Caucus cockery

I wouldn’t read much into it

Polls are usually wrong or someone is manipulating the vote totals someplace

Who know?

Or maybe the debate screwed Trump over. Fox took a chainsaw to him and did real damage

[kik5150]

Another Freeper, who is a Trump supporter, mentioned to me that people like to vote for a winner. With the performance tonight, Trump’s “winning” image took a hit. He certainly will not run away with the nomination. The tide may be turning.

[arl295]

cruz isn’t going to win the north east or California or many other states

He has a ceiling

[kik5150]

Caucus cockery

Trump seems to do well in states where Dems can cross over and vote, so there's that.

[Rightwing Conspiratr1]

It appears that Trump eked out the Louisiana win with early voting? Kasich has pulled ahead of Trump Michigan in the latest poll. Momentum shift?

[Truthsearcher]

On Super Tuesday Trump underperformed his polls by an average of 11.5%.
Today he underperformed by even more, an average of around 15%.
Can you imagine the disaster he would be in November if he underperformed by that much against Hillary?

[kik5150]

cruz isn’t going to win the north east or California

You're whistling past the graveyard.

The last poll showed Cruz AHEAD in California, and you can't get more Northeast than Maine, where Cruz SCHLONGED Trump.

[icwhatudo]

The faster the anti GOP-e forces can get rid of Rubio, the better.

[kik5150]

The faster the anti GOP-e forces can get rid of Rubio, the better.

Kasich too!

[chris37]

My thoughts are whoever wins it wins it, but hopefully it’s won in such a way that the GOP can’t snatch it from him.

Rubio and Kasich need to git.

[txjeep]

Undecideds broke heavily for Cruz. Trump mostly hit close to his poll numbers, but Cruz greatly outperformed his. With Rubio and kasich in the race, Cruz likely won’t be able to beat trump consistently unless he can convince Rubio and Kasich voters to switch to him.

[lacrew]

Psst...Kansas GOP had a closed Caucus.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

I’m going to break out the spreadsheet tomorrow and look at the polling numbers and results from Iowa through yesterday. Cruz is really over-performing pretty much across the board and I suspect there are a couple of reasons why.

The first suspicion I have is that people who decide in the last 48 hours are breaking for Cruz. That means that they have already decided that they aren’t going to vote for Trump, and they haven’t settled on the non-Trump candidate they want to vote for.

The second suspicion is a reverse Bradley effect. It’s happened a few times, and Cruz is the perfect candidate to benefit from it. Since Cruz has been vilified by the press, and now by several other candidates, people may be hesitant to admit to a pollster that they plan to vote for someone who is considered undesirable.

I’ll look and see exactly how much, if at all, he is really over-performing.

[PA-LU Student]

I would be very interested in seeing that spreadsheet.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Droves of people are deciding at the very last moment... and it’s getting incrementally less for Trump. His novelty shine may be coming off upon closer inspection.