“Except if you go by the poll data in every state, Hillary beats Donald 419 to 119.”
Plus, Trump hasn’t even started going after Hillary, and you KNOW that he won’t hold back at all.
Put those factors into a poll, and you’ll find it much closer to the diametric opposite of your claim.
Also your theory supposed that nothing of your argued circumstances will change between now and November. I personally think the media has been handling trump with soft gloves keeping him ready to year down before November.