"A slug should be able to beat hrc. But Cruz seems to be pretty much unknown among the people I know. He seems to have a lot of ground to make upo."
Exactly. But even though Cruz is less known, he still beats HRC. Conversely, Trump, who is known by just about everyone, can't seem to beat her. And he fares even worse against Bernie. His disapproval numbers are extraordinary at 60%, which is the highest percentage of any candidate ever recorded, if we can believe the news reports. Even HRCs are "only" 52%.
No he doesn't. A poll that compares something to nothing is talking-head fodder but bears no comparison to reality - Cruz is still a national unknown. Polls that ask about a favorable rating are practically just as bad.
This might be difficult for you to grasp but a candidate getting 28% of the vote in his own backyard is an actual true test of strength. Look at the voters who voted for that candidate, then extrapolate that across the country.
Stalin could get 45% of the national vote in the democrat party. Take any known republican and they will start at least a few percentages below that. Take an unknown republican and they should score higher against a disliked democrat. That is all you are seeing now.
As I mentioned, only Trump is known nationally and is therefore right now where he needs to be. Once you get the true crossover votes that will come, Trump wins.
Once Cruz is known - his appearance and religiosity - sad to say, he is doomed. Doesn't matter if you believe me. But logic will tell you that a guy that can't get 30% of the vote in the best situation in no way is going to get 50% of the national vote... no way.