Trump draws a lot of big crowds which I believe shows that it’s more than name recognition. I think Trump will do well this week but they should put more effort in the get out the vote.
Sometimes people see a candidate way ahead in the polls and they assume there guy will win anyway, so why bother going out in the cold to vote? Hopefully this won’t happen with Trump.
One could take DT’s # of rally attendees and actual Iowans caucasing to derive his conversion/commitment rate.