I’d agree, except that Trump’s Republican poll numbers were TERRIBLE before he announced and just when he announced...why weren’t his numbers ‘inflated’ then, everyone already knew who he was BEFORE he ran.
And then he mentioned the wall and they started going up, and up, and up...
So New Hampshire will be the REAL TEST. If Trump makes it to 35%, then his numbers CLEARLY are real. If 30-35, then maybe, if lower, then maybe some merit here.
Iowa didn’t mean jack, given how they vote versus how they poll. Until pollsters start including the ‘evangelical factor’ in polling, which basically means adjusting the candidate’s apparent level of support either up or down up to 5 points, depending on their ‘religious creds’, they will never get it right. Had they done this the past 3 rounds, they would have predicted the winner.
Iowa is a screwy system that makes voting harder and allows for funny business. The candidate that spends the most time and money organizing volunteers and dragging people to the polls wins. Cruz probably had a second home there for the past 2 years and Trump still came in a close second. Iowa is a joke, I wish all candidates would start ignoring it and lower it’s status.