[2ndDivisionVet]

Conservatives are wrong? Do you know what site you’re on?

[Albion Wilde]

By "what if your ideological base is wrong" did not mean conservatism is wrong, but that a sizeable portion of individual voters' perceptions of what constitutes conservatism may be mistaken in some way. There seems to be a lot of dispute over what the definitive components are, and what percentage of them have to be present (60% vs 90%, for instance) for the label to be applied.

In at least one example, if your base only defines "seating" as 90% chairs, but some people say 60% chairs plus sofas, bleachers and stools should be valid, you have a fuzzy statistic.

Hence the old saying, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

In commenting on the statistical model, I am pointing out that most stat models have to work with past behaviors, but in this race, the challenger is atypical and may defy statistically derived expectations.

[trisham]

I would assume so.