It is close and one important thing about elections is how motivated the voters are.
I believe a lot of people are ready for serious change. Hillary won’t provide that. Another thing is that Hillary will need the black base motivated. I don’t see blacks overly motivated for Hillary. In fact, I believe Trump could pick up a lot of their votes.
We could see Trump says something like "I know you Black women are not all that enthralled with me. But, here's the deal. I'm gonna create jobs. I'm going to put your man to work and get him outta the house. Then, he's going to vote for me and you are going to, too."
Hillary is all they got.... The Dems have no "B" team and we have two or three "A" teams, "B", "C" and "D" teams! If she blanks out at a real debate or does that laugh instead of answering a national security question, even neutral voters may question her ability. Furthermore, the minority turnout is based on keeping the blacks, etc. roused up. That's a lot of emotion to keep going for 11 straight months.
Talking to my college and high school aged offspring, nobody they know likes Hillary. The Dem-leaning ones like Bernie. The rest like Trump.