At the same time, I believe you are under-estimating the stay-at-home Republican vote that would be attributable to a Trump nomination. As a veteran of the Goldwater campaign, I'm acutely sensitive to how little support -- in terms of money, on the ground action and actual votes -- an anti-establishment GOP candidate can receive.
This effect, too, will be in play...to some degree.
That's not to say the very same effects wouldn't be in play with a Cruz candidacy.
Thus, both Trump and Cruz are risky candidates. But I would a helluva lot rather take my chances with Trump or Cruz than with Bush or, say, Kasich.
Reagan was an outsider also. The biggest mistake republicans make is thinking Goldwater instead of Reagan, which is why we get “safe” losers like Dole, McCain and Romney as nominees. I think you underestimate the disgusted stay at homes if somebody like Bush, Kasich or Rubio is the nominee. I know I will be one of them.
“But I would a helluva lot rather take my chances with Trump or Cruz than with Bush or, say, Kasich.”
Absolutely. I’d stay home with Bush or Kasich.
Remember, Trump doesn’t need anybody’s money either, so that’s not as issue. And the establishment will supposedly back the nominee, hence the pledge.
That Cruz doesn’t could be why he’s silent on what he’ll do with the illegals here.