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The question is whether all of the others would coalesce around Trump

Highly unlikely. Trump is extremely polarizing, you can see it in poll after poll. Carson and Fiorina seem to be the "we want an outsider, but not Trump" candidates. I just don't see their support going to "the Donald". I hope it would go to Cruz, but much as I like and support him so far it doesn't seem like he is generating a real groundswell of broad support.

I looks to me like Rubio may end up being the more establishment candidate in the race. He may be perceived as a "consensus" candidate that can largely unify the party. And yes, I know - Gang of 8, Gang of 8, Gang of 8... Then again, Trump was against tough immigration reform in 2012 and claimed Romney was too TOUGH on illegal immigration. All Romney wanted was to enforce eVerify, punish businesses for hiring illegals and let the jobs for them dry up here so they have no reason to come. Here is Trump in 2012:

The Republican Party will continue to lose presidential elections if it comes across as mean-spirited and unwelcoming toward people of color, Donald Trump tells Newsmax. Romney’s solution of “self deportation” for illegal aliens made no sense and suggested that Republicans do not care about Hispanics in general, Trump says. “He had a crazy policy of self deportation which was maniacal,” Trump says.

And yet now he's flip flopped and put out an even harsher plan that is bound to be demagogued even more than what Romney was proposing.

Don't believe that about Trump's numbers. Last month we had two separate "shocked" polls that showed Trump's favorable/unfavorables had flipped 180 degrees from the previous months. I've always been convinced Carson's voters (though not Fiorina's---but some, as I know some) were in a "Donald Trump Parking Lot."

Agree Rubio is the target to beat now, but Trump had crushed him early. Once the Pauls, Huckabees, and the rest siphon out, people will have to choose more of the same (losers) or someone else. They'll choose someone else.

By the time Carson drops out Cruz will be long gone. Carson is doing much better than Cruz. Carson supporters will go to Trump.

The establishment is divided between Jeb, Rubio and Fiorina. If none of them drops out this will be a cakewalk for Trump. My guess is that Jeb will drop out after the NH primary so that Rubio has a shot at winning Florida.

And yet now he’s flip flopped and put out an even harsher plan that is bound to be demagogued even more than what Romney was proposing.

Trump was gum flapping. Rubio was a sitting US Senator casting votes. Big difference.