Posted on 09/29/2015 6:30:48 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
And yet now he’s flip flopped and put out an even harsher plan that is bound to be demagogued even more than what Romney was proposing.
Trump was gum flapping. Rubio was a sitting US Senator casting votes. Big difference.
I dunno 'bout that. Most of the Carson supporters I've seen, both on and off of FR, seem pretty pissy.
But the big question remains: “Can a Presidential candidate stand on his tiptoes and speak Spanish at the same time?”
Absolutely!
Many Trump supporters seem convinced this primary is going to be a cake walk for "the Donald". It won't be. I highly doubt he will be the nominee actually. I also disagree that Carson supporters will go to Trump. I think they represent the "we prefer an outsider, an evangelical preferably, but not Donald Trump". Donald Trump has intense support (which you can see on political forums, etc), but we really don't know how deep it is. Nader had intense support and could fill arena's, but it didn't translate to much national support. McGovern could draw huge rallies in '72, but he got crushed by Nixon. Huge crowds turned out against Walker during the union reform fight, but those crowds did not really represent the majority of Wisconsin voters, etc.
If Trump is generally stuck at around 25%, once the primary is wheedled down to 2 or 3 people one of the others will emerge. I hope it will be Cruz, but there is no sugarcoating he isn't doing very well....yet. So if it isn't Cruz my guess it will end up being Rubio as Jeb is just a bad candidate all around (and I don't think even many "moderate/establishment" voters want another Bush).
Florida is winner take all now too !
:)
See ya Jeb!
Cruz is the best consensus candidate, but the problem is every wing of the party is going for the candidate who’s #1 on what they want even if that candidate stinks on everything else. Trump is best on immigration, but stinks on social conservatism. Carson is great on social conservatism, but stinks on foreign policy. Rubio is great on foreign policy, but stinks on immigration.
Cruz might be a close 2nd best on immigration, foreign policy and social conservatism. But instead of looking for that consensus and balance, everyone is picking the candidate who’s 100% focused on their pet issue even if that candidate could never appeal to the other wings of the party.
PPP found that Trump and Carson draw their second choice support from each other’s supporters.
But the bottom line is that Trump doesn’t need Carson to drop out. He is winning with Carson in the race. And Florida is winner takes all.
Even the corrupt Chamber of Commerce can’t cook the books that bad! They are buying Kleenex by the case....
LOL
Bump!
Yep, the establishment changed this rule to move it up from 5 states to 8 states and, the real kicker, requiring a MAJORITY of delegates in the 8 states instead of just a plurality. This was done by Romney’s counsel, “Super Republican lawyer and lobbyist Ben Ginsberg.”
That means the non-winner-take-all states probably aren’t going to matter at all for eligibility to be the nominee, since no one will likely be able to get the majority of the delegates in any of them.
So, there are only 28 states that really matter, the winner-take-all states. If a candidate can’t win 8 of these, they’re not eligible to win the nomination, even if they’re #1 in every other state but only have the biggest plurality of delegates in each.
March 15, 2016 Ohio
March 15, 2016 Florida
March 15, 2016 Illinois
March 15, 2016 Missouri
March 15, 2016 North Carolina
March 22, 2016 Arizona
March 22, 2016 Utah
April 5, 2016 Wisconsin
April 19, 2016 New York
April 26, 2016 Connecticut
April 26, 2016 Delaware
April 26, 2016 Maryland
April 26, 2016 Pennsylvania
April 26, 2016 Rhode Island
May 3, 2016 Indiana
May 10, 2016 Nebraska
May 10, 2016 West Virginia
May 17, 2016 Oregon
June 7, 2016 California
June 7, 2016 Montana
June 7, 2016 New Jersey
June 7, 2016 New Mexico
June 7, 2016 South Dakota
TBA North Dakota
TBA Colorado
TBA Idaho
TBA Maine
TBA Washington
Lots of conventional wisdom there that is likely wrong. I keep hearing that Trump can’t win so I look for someone else who could win, but I don’t see anybody. And Trump has a megaphone like no other ever in the history of politics and he seems to get better every day at politicking.
the favorite son is not the favorite
the favored sons are barely equal combined
Is Florida a winner-take all state?
How the 2016 Republican Primaries Will Work
The first states to hold primaries, as usual, will be Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Voters in those states will go to the polls in February under the party rules passed in 2014. States that attempt to jump ahead of those four states will be punished with the loss of delegates.
States that hold their primaries between March 1 and March 14, 2016, will award their delegates on a proportional basis, meaning that no one candidate could likely win the nomination before late-voting states get to hold their primaries.
States voting on March 15, 2016, or later will award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, meaning candidates will likely pay more attention to them.
Yes. If there were only one conservative running against Jeb Florida would be majority for the Conservative. The conservative will probably have the most votes but not a majority. He will get all of Florida’s delegates but Florida will not count in totting p the 8 majorities necessary to even be considered at the Convention. Bush is expected to handily get his 8 majorities in those northern states that are expected to vote Democrat in the Election, thus not affecting the election at all. Those states are the states that Trump has to win, or enough of them to prevent Bush from getting his Eight. If/when Bush gets those 8 he doesn’t have to get any votes at all in any of the other states if the conservatives keep each other from winning 8 outright majorities in 8 of them. Much Bush money will be spent trashing the front runner in each of the conservative states to keep any single candidate from winning more than one or two majorities. Bush’s people expect him to be the only candidate considered at the Convention. They do not expect or desire him to win the election, nor does he.
And what northern states would those be?
same story here. It will change like clockwork once Trump or Cruz gets the nomination but carson or Fiorina are backed by GOPe
Conclusion: Trump is waaaaay ahead while a bunch of candidate battle for meaningless second place. Meaningless because WINNER takes ALL.
Yup!
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