Posted on 09/17/2015 2:10:35 AM PDT by smoothsailing
September 17, 2015
by sundance
Baseline – Going into the debate all the candidates, other than Trump, had something to gain and little to lose. Donald Trump had everything to lose and little to gain. With that in mind:
Carly Fiorina will most likely be represented to the public as the “winner” by the professional legacy media structures. New York and Park Row will advance a specific pro-Carly meme; in part out of necessity for their financial overall objectives and interests.
However, for the high-information voter, all of the 30-second talking points -which will be highlighted as reasoning for her great performance- were really just repetition of well-rehearsed sound bites we have heard before.
None, absolutely NONE, of the Carly applause lines were original. Fiorina has used each and every one of them before in the exact same word and sentence structure.
The visibly negative aspect to Carly’s performance was her zealously in delivering those well-rehearsed points; increasingly evident in her interruptions to present them. Seven times in the first 3/4 of the debate Carly was exclaiming “jake”, “jake”…. or “Dana”, “Dana”,… in her effort to deliver them. It was simply too much. And was also transparently obvious based on twitter recognitions therein.
However, for the lower information voter it was probably less noticeable.
Jeb Bush did terribly. Like Fiorina when he was given the time for his script he sounded just like he did when he was in the bathroom rehearsing them at home.
However, when he was not on script he seemed small and wonky. If there was a loser in the debate it would probably be Jeb because he needed to get back some of his polled loses; he didn’t.
From a Wall Street perspective Jeb Bush did not deliver the goods, and that doesn’t portend well for his long term considerations. Those who are financing his campaign have been given assurances; those assurances are not being met.
Anticipate static Jeb polling or perhaps even lower polling moving forward.
Ben Carson also suffered a bit from seeming small against the backdrop. It would not be a surprise to see some of Carson’s “outsider” but anti-vulgarian support, (especially the lower information and emotional voter), jump ship and land on Team Carly giving her a modest lift.
Obviously either Carson or Fiorina will work well for the current needs of the Wall Street Jeb crews. They don’t really care which person fits the bill, just get Trump’s coalition split ASAP is all they require.
[ Expect Karl Rove to soften his approach of favorability toward Carson, and begin to lift up Fiorina. It will be subtle but the objectives with each are the same. ]
In essence, Carson held his own, but didn’t advance himself.
Marco Rubio did well. Like Fiorina he’s well scripted for 30-60 second sound bites based on all of his media appearances where short direct points are an asset.
However, on the down-side he sounded more like he was applying for Secretary of State or President of the 2016 U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
For some reason Rubio’s nervousness comes across on TV. When he’s comfortable with the topic he’s on message and sharp; however, when he’s uncomfortable his delivery is awkward and bothersome.
Scott Walker didn’t advance nor damage his cause. Unfortunately given his 3, 2, 2, 5, 1 results in the last five polls, he did not provide a solid reason he should be polling higher.
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Ohio Governor John Kasich took the high-road as expected, but were essentially invisible amid the issues of the day. They presented themselves as typical Republican brand holders.
Rand Paul needed a good debate and while he made some good points in a general sense, he gave the impression of phoning it in. Overall no substantive benefit from the debate. Also, Rand Paul tweeted out in the later commercial break for a fundraising drive to “help him finish”. It appeared awkward at best.
Ted Cruz didn’t appear to have as much time to respond perhaps due to the structure which was heavily weighted to use “Trump said _____” to question the other candidates. Because there’s been no substantive disagreements between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, this format decision put him on the losing end of debate time.
Chris Christie also did well; actually, none of the candidates did “badly”. The polling support that Jeb or the other establishment candidates may lose will probably go to Chris Christie. Oddly, Christie was able to come off as more conservative in this debate. I somewhat expect a bit of a bounce from this coalescing anomaly to head to Christie.
This leaves Donald Trump – the candidate who had everything to lose and nothing to gain.
He maneuvered his way through the debate well despite the framework of the questions which were transparently structured to have the other ten candidates, sans Cruz, attack him.
Unpredictable Trump was again remarkably able to be unpredictable Trump; and in doing so he solidifies an oddly appealing authenticity. Because he was able to navigate the various angles of incoming, and simultaneously express non-political authenticity, he exits the debate unscathed.
The final question/answer by Donald Trump was excellent and summed up his candidacy: “Actions speak louder than words – what you heard tonight was a lot of words, what I will deliver is action“.
Specifically because Trump exits unscathed, he also wins.
ps. Three Hours is TOO LONG! I have a hunch many viewers tuned out after hour 2.
Good one.
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Your point is well-taken ... Donald Trump didn’t reply with specifics last night ...
However, last night was not a genuine policy discussion ...
It was the “Gunfight at the OK Corral” ... Donald Trump survived wave after wave of attacks ...
He did ok ...
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LOL, I’d like to have a cup of coffee with you.Now I wont be able to get that out of my mind for the rest of the day.LOL
MIND BLEACH—NOW!
I’m 0.01% curious as to what you’re saying on this thread, and 99.9 so incurious I’d rather read the phone book cover to cover than find out.
Fortunately I’ve learned to recognize your posts at usually the three word mark, four words at the outside. This enables me to skip everything that follows.
Just not in the mood for your knee jerk Trump hate today. There is nothing fresh, interesting or engaging in it, if the past is any guide. It’s simply become predictable, boring and repetitive. Sorry you love the Permanent Poltical Class so much that you want more of the same. Some are ready to put a doer, not a talker on the job—before it’s too late.
I liked how both Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz described in detail the horrors of the Planned Parenthood videos. I was very impressed with how Bobby Jindal put Pataki and Graham in their place by highlighting their defeatist whining about not wanting to vote on something that Obama would veto. I was not impressed by Trump talking about how he would get along and do deals with Putin.
I am supporting Trump as the least of all evils, but I can see in Cruz's eyes he is a cheap labor shill, he just want to do legally.
Nobody is looking out for the middle class, no one really.
It depends on how you define winner.
If by winner you mean who did better than everyone else, then it was Trump by a landslide because he got TONS of time.
If by winner you mean who’s poll numbers will move up the most compared to where they were before the debate, then it was Fiorina by a landslide because she was polling so low before and could see her numbers double (but still be pretty low in the pack)
Carson will take the biggest hit to his poll numbers because of his performance, and from that point of view he was the biggest loser.
But the other big losers were Kaisac, Paul and Walker who might have just put the final nails in their coffins.
It’s also refreshing to see the BAD GUYS get shot, or hung (unlike today’s Satanic generation) .
You’re killing me.lol
I think you’re pretty much on target.
I think Trump was the big winner mainly because he held his ground. That’s all he needs to do at this point.
Solid analysis, but what really makes your post is that picture of Biden behind H->
Thus proving Trumps comments about her face
Isn’t that a hoot! I swear he’s goosing her! LOL!
VERY good analysis and I agree, especially about the obviousness of CNN’s targeted attacks on Trump.
Trump says many cringe-worthy things but by attacking him so it actually overcomes anything he says and makes Trump out to be the winner because A) it was obvious and B) he survived it and fought back every attempt. They would have done much better (against Trump) had they not done so!
I listened to the debate rather than watched it. Try that sometime. It makes it different.
I was busy following the Free Republic live thread so listened as I read. Rubio really sounded good. Every response of his was directed at Obama, Hillary and the democrats, not others on stage. I liked that. Still won’t vote for the Gangster (of 8) but he did sound well.
Cruz was perfect. Listening, not watching, I would say shows Cruz to be the true conservative out of all of this bunch. Even a Martian would notice that.
Huckabee and Christie also spoke very well and focused.
The other 3 governors, Bush, Kasich and Walker sounded too self-promotion’y. It is tiresome listening to their list of wonders they accomplished as governors. I’d much rather hear what they’d do as President. Also, Christie had the same self-promotion thing going at times, too. I could not care less about how New Jersey does solar power.
Paul should get applause from true Republicans about his vigorous defense of the Constitution, but he still sounds creepy, sorry.
Fiorina sounded really strident, but had some good moments, especially about Planned Parenthood. Carson talks to slow and low. Still, you can’t help but liking the guy. He’s not a dick like most politicians.
Well done
While I agree this is a great analysis I also see the sun going down on America. There is a poverty of character and integrity among us as a nation and these candidates reflect who we have become - and to me, it isn’t good.
There’s very little in Trump that appeals to me. He has changed the narrative by making common sense issues the main topic and has caused the media elites and Rinos to play defense. His bull in a china shop approach has totally thrown them for a loop and they are only now recovering somewhat. However, on character and reasoned solutions, he loses me. A Trump presidency will be a very mixed bag and his liberal loves will no doubt resurface.
We are in way more trouble as a nation than I think we realize. The “America is great because she is good,” quote (whether Alexis de Tocqueville said it or not) was a true statement - but not today. We have lost our soul and nothing much seems to inform our values except personal preferences and it bothers us only a little.
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