Posted on 09/17/2015 2:10:35 AM PDT by smoothsailing
September 17, 2015
by sundance
Baseline – Going into the debate all the candidates, other than Trump, had something to gain and little to lose. Donald Trump had everything to lose and little to gain. With that in mind:
Carly Fiorina will most likely be represented to the public as the “winner” by the professional legacy media structures. New York and Park Row will advance a specific pro-Carly meme; in part out of necessity for their financial overall objectives and interests.
However, for the high-information voter, all of the 30-second talking points -which will be highlighted as reasoning for her great performance- were really just repetition of well-rehearsed sound bites we have heard before.
None, absolutely NONE, of the Carly applause lines were original. Fiorina has used each and every one of them before in the exact same word and sentence structure.
The visibly negative aspect to Carly’s performance was her zealously in delivering those well-rehearsed points; increasingly evident in her interruptions to present them. Seven times in the first 3/4 of the debate Carly was exclaiming “jake”, “jake”…. or “Dana”, “Dana”,… in her effort to deliver them. It was simply too much. And was also transparently obvious based on twitter recognitions therein.
However, for the lower information voter it was probably less noticeable.
Jeb Bush did terribly. Like Fiorina when he was given the time for his script he sounded just like he did when he was in the bathroom rehearsing them at home.
However, when he was not on script he seemed small and wonky. If there was a loser in the debate it would probably be Jeb because he needed to get back some of his polled loses; he didn’t.
From a Wall Street perspective Jeb Bush did not deliver the goods, and that doesn’t portend well for his long term considerations. Those who are financing his campaign have been given assurances; those assurances are not being met.
Anticipate static Jeb polling or perhaps even lower polling moving forward.
Ben Carson also suffered a bit from seeming small against the backdrop. It would not be a surprise to see some of Carson’s “outsider” but anti-vulgarian support, (especially the lower information and emotional voter), jump ship and land on Team Carly giving her a modest lift.
Obviously either Carson or Fiorina will work well for the current needs of the Wall Street Jeb crews. They don’t really care which person fits the bill, just get Trump’s coalition split ASAP is all they require.
[ Expect Karl Rove to soften his approach of favorability toward Carson, and begin to lift up Fiorina. It will be subtle but the objectives with each are the same. ]
In essence, Carson held his own, but didn’t advance himself.
Marco Rubio did well. Like Fiorina he’s well scripted for 30-60 second sound bites based on all of his media appearances where short direct points are an asset.
However, on the down-side he sounded more like he was applying for Secretary of State or President of the 2016 U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
For some reason Rubio’s nervousness comes across on TV. When he’s comfortable with the topic he’s on message and sharp; however, when he’s uncomfortable his delivery is awkward and bothersome.
Scott Walker didn’t advance nor damage his cause. Unfortunately given his 3, 2, 2, 5, 1 results in the last five polls, he did not provide a solid reason he should be polling higher.
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Ohio Governor John Kasich took the high-road as expected, but were essentially invisible amid the issues of the day. They presented themselves as typical Republican brand holders.
Rand Paul needed a good debate and while he made some good points in a general sense, he gave the impression of phoning it in. Overall no substantive benefit from the debate. Also, Rand Paul tweeted out in the later commercial break for a fundraising drive to “help him finish”. It appeared awkward at best.
Ted Cruz didn’t appear to have as much time to respond perhaps due to the structure which was heavily weighted to use “Trump said _____” to question the other candidates. Because there’s been no substantive disagreements between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, this format decision put him on the losing end of debate time.
Chris Christie also did well; actually, none of the candidates did “badly”. The polling support that Jeb or the other establishment candidates may lose will probably go to Chris Christie. Oddly, Christie was able to come off as more conservative in this debate. I somewhat expect a bit of a bounce from this coalescing anomaly to head to Christie.
This leaves Donald Trump – the candidate who had everything to lose and nothing to gain.
He maneuvered his way through the debate well despite the framework of the questions which were transparently structured to have the other ten candidates, sans Cruz, attack him.
Unpredictable Trump was again remarkably able to be unpredictable Trump; and in doing so he solidifies an oddly appealing authenticity. Because he was able to navigate the various angles of incoming, and simultaneously express non-political authenticity, he exits the debate unscathed.
The final question/answer by Donald Trump was excellent and summed up his candidacy: “Actions speak louder than words – what you heard tonight was a lot of words, what I will deliver is action“.
Specifically because Trump exits unscathed, he also wins.
ps. Three Hours is TOO LONG! I have a hunch many viewers tuned out after hour 2.
This is by far the most sane analysis.
Great analysis.
sundance remains on target. IMHO, he’s the best source for 2016 Presidential campaign analysis, commentary and critique.
Excellent analysis!
Rubio, Huckabee, Cruz and even Christie are all excellent debaters. I might put Carly in that category too if I liked her - which I do not. She is a motor mouth, in my opinion. Trump’s Achilles heel is debates and I think that was what he was eluding to in his final comment - a lot of words and no action. Other than his gang of 8 - I think Rubio is a solid conservative, but that disqualifies him for me. We need him, Paul and yes - even Cruz in the Senate. I wouldn’t be disappointed though if Trump should win the nomination if he chooses Cruz as his running mate.
The ‘Joe The Creeper’ photo cracks me up.
I think Trump wounded Carly Fiorina and Jeb Bush pretty bad. How much they bleed from their wounds remains to be seen. He hit Carly hard when he brought up her tenure at HP and Lucent. Hopefully this gets traction. He hurt Bush on immigration and on his brother’s legacy. Given the level of hostility leveled against Trump from before he even took the stage, I think he did pretty good. Not many people could weather that kind of hostility. His brutal comments to Rand Paul might not go over so well however. Time will tell.
At this point I see that as the best outcome.
and Cruz did an excellent job with the short amount of time he had allotted to him. His command of the issues was obvious. If this doesn’t advance him, I don’t know what will.
LOL, it looks like he just goosed her!
Rubio’s not just terrible on immigration—he has a bad tax plan too.
Oh, and he sounds like a college Republican.
Spot on!
I have the TV going with the recording of the debates but with the sound muted.
Just watching reactions, body language and facial expressions, Fiorina looked staged, rehearsed and practiced. It was obvious that she was given some type of heads up on the questions.
Also, with the audio on, it’s obvious the audience was stacked in her favor.
Cruz was constantly cut-off and even when he had time to make excellent points, no applause from the audience.
As far as Trump, this was an ambush from the start.
Rush predicted this all week long.
He should have a great show and analysis later today.
2016 election cycle winner: Sundance.
One of the very few professional (?) pundits worth reading.
Trump stood his ground. They barely laid a glove on him, and boy they tried. They had to knock him down if they couldn’t knock him out. They did neither. By losing no ground, he was the winner.
I completely agree. It’s good honest journalism, something we rarely see anymore.
Despite the across the board attacks, Trump remains standing. Even the other candidates had to agree with him on points, which I am sure hurt. I like the "Actions speak louder than words – what you heard tonight was a lot of words, what I will deliver is action." Only Trump can answer that by evidence of his past. Especially when that is in comparison to Carson and Fiorina, his only two earstwhile competitors. The others are dead men walking, all avoiding Perry's fate and dropping out, which is what they should all do.
I did not tire of the long 3 hour format. I do think this is a win and overall SO MUCH BETTER than Fox. I did miss a few minutes of it do to dinner and family, so I'll watch and listen to it again as I have a long day of travel this weekend.
So my take:
Fact is Carly laid off over 30,000 folks at HP , she is the reason the company had to split itself up.
Carly was not too proud to take a $42 million dollar severance package while she laid off people that kind of money could have kept employed. Carly is responsible for HP being devalued.
Carly ran for office and she couldn’t win, I don’t want her as VP either.
She should be shunned, into a state of apology/gratitude... or shark bait.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.