Posted on 09/17/2015 2:10:35 AM PDT by smoothsailing
September 17, 2015
by sundance
Baseline – Going into the debate all the candidates, other than Trump, had something to gain and little to lose. Donald Trump had everything to lose and little to gain. With that in mind:
Carly Fiorina will most likely be represented to the public as the “winner” by the professional legacy media structures. New York and Park Row will advance a specific pro-Carly meme; in part out of necessity for their financial overall objectives and interests.
However, for the high-information voter, all of the 30-second talking points -which will be highlighted as reasoning for her great performance- were really just repetition of well-rehearsed sound bites we have heard before.
None, absolutely NONE, of the Carly applause lines were original. Fiorina has used each and every one of them before in the exact same word and sentence structure.
The visibly negative aspect to Carly’s performance was her zealously in delivering those well-rehearsed points; increasingly evident in her interruptions to present them. Seven times in the first 3/4 of the debate Carly was exclaiming “jake”, “jake”…. or “Dana”, “Dana”,… in her effort to deliver them. It was simply too much. And was also transparently obvious based on twitter recognitions therein.
However, for the lower information voter it was probably less noticeable.
Jeb Bush did terribly. Like Fiorina when he was given the time for his script he sounded just like he did when he was in the bathroom rehearsing them at home.
However, when he was not on script he seemed small and wonky. If there was a loser in the debate it would probably be Jeb because he needed to get back some of his polled loses; he didn’t.
From a Wall Street perspective Jeb Bush did not deliver the goods, and that doesn’t portend well for his long term considerations. Those who are financing his campaign have been given assurances; those assurances are not being met.
Anticipate static Jeb polling or perhaps even lower polling moving forward.
Ben Carson also suffered a bit from seeming small against the backdrop. It would not be a surprise to see some of Carson’s “outsider” but anti-vulgarian support, (especially the lower information and emotional voter), jump ship and land on Team Carly giving her a modest lift.
Obviously either Carson or Fiorina will work well for the current needs of the Wall Street Jeb crews. They don’t really care which person fits the bill, just get Trump’s coalition split ASAP is all they require.
[ Expect Karl Rove to soften his approach of favorability toward Carson, and begin to lift up Fiorina. It will be subtle but the objectives with each are the same. ]
In essence, Carson held his own, but didn’t advance himself.
Marco Rubio did well. Like Fiorina he’s well scripted for 30-60 second sound bites based on all of his media appearances where short direct points are an asset.
However, on the down-side he sounded more like he was applying for Secretary of State or President of the 2016 U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
For some reason Rubio’s nervousness comes across on TV. When he’s comfortable with the topic he’s on message and sharp; however, when he’s uncomfortable his delivery is awkward and bothersome.
Scott Walker didn’t advance nor damage his cause. Unfortunately given his 3, 2, 2, 5, 1 results in the last five polls, he did not provide a solid reason he should be polling higher.
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Ohio Governor John Kasich took the high-road as expected, but were essentially invisible amid the issues of the day. They presented themselves as typical Republican brand holders.
Rand Paul needed a good debate and while he made some good points in a general sense, he gave the impression of phoning it in. Overall no substantive benefit from the debate. Also, Rand Paul tweeted out in the later commercial break for a fundraising drive to “help him finish”. It appeared awkward at best.
Ted Cruz didn’t appear to have as much time to respond perhaps due to the structure which was heavily weighted to use “Trump said _____” to question the other candidates. Because there’s been no substantive disagreements between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, this format decision put him on the losing end of debate time.
Chris Christie also did well; actually, none of the candidates did “badly”. The polling support that Jeb or the other establishment candidates may lose will probably go to Chris Christie. Oddly, Christie was able to come off as more conservative in this debate. I somewhat expect a bit of a bounce from this coalescing anomaly to head to Christie.
This leaves Donald Trump – the candidate who had everything to lose and nothing to gain.
He maneuvered his way through the debate well despite the framework of the questions which were transparently structured to have the other ten candidates, sans Cruz, attack him.
Unpredictable Trump was again remarkably able to be unpredictable Trump; and in doing so he solidifies an oddly appealing authenticity. Because he was able to navigate the various angles of incoming, and simultaneously express non-political authenticity, he exits the debate unscathed.
The final question/answer by Donald Trump was excellent and summed up his candidacy: “Actions speak louder than words – what you heard tonight was a lot of words, what I will deliver is action“.
Specifically because Trump exits unscathed, he also wins.
ps. Three Hours is TOO LONG! I have a hunch many viewers tuned out after hour 2.
Trump has a special place for some because so little is expected of him when it comes to policy or knowledge. Not knowing things makes him appealing to those who feel America needs another amateur, a dilettante in the Oval Office. (It’s worked so well in the last six years, right?) Trump seems authentic to his supporters, too, because he doesn’t mind being boorish. That’s the real him and some people like a man who can toss off insults when he has no ideas beyond slogans.
Best insight, so far. Thanks.
Sinister Joe Biden/2016: Because America Needs More Creepiness
[who in Hell thought that photo was good idea?]
The GOP-e urinated away reasons to support them until we finally arrived at last night's.. er... "debate." ("You keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means.") What a spectacle!
Mr. niteowl77
Given her HP experience, I’d like to see Fiorina as Sec of Education, HUD, EPA, or anything else we need to cut down to size.
Thanks for the excellent summation. It is pretty much the way I saw it too, except for Carly. I think she’ll pick up a few points from the angry woman crowd. But I don’t see her going anywhere with it. She’s just not that all appealing, IMO.
Ted Cruz won!
Kind of reminds of similar comments about Ronaldus Maximus back in 1979-1980.
“Some like a man who can toss off insults.....”
So a man should allow himself to be insulted and not defend himself?
You seem satisfied with the politicians we have, iow the DC insiders. I am not and it is clear a majority of others are not either.
America must have, NOW, someone who will no longer allow the rest of the world to disrespect and laugh at us as they do now. I want a LEADER who instills FEAR in the hearts and minds of our enemies, a man who is in fact unpredictable and has an aura of strength and power surrounding him.
That man is Trump.
At the bottom of this page,under the "Trumpeteers" photo, Sundance posted:
"ps. Full disclosure the Ted Cruz campaign (via Brian Phillips, Director of Rapid Response) has contacted us claiming they do have a road map for a Ted Cruz victory. I have replied to their email contact welcoming their outline."
But haven't seen Cruz's road map post yet.
Fox News did a fact check on Trumps comments and found two to be erroneous. No fact checks were done on the other 10 candidates. I’m not crazy about any of the candidates at this time but the more they gang up on Trump the closer I come to voting for him...
Trump instills embarrassment, not fear. He insults another candidate’s wife for her heritage. He insults another candidate for her looks and another one for his height. He wins the cad vote, for sure. And this is the type of clownish and childish behavior we can expect daily from Trump. He’s shallow on policy and facts and devoid of common courtesy. He brags about his wealth as if that makes him a good candidate. Soros is rich, like Trump. I hope he couldn’t fool you too.
Bennett really said that??? Talk about doing anything for a buck!
I used to wonder why the Republican party never seemed to catch a break no matter what good fortune dropped into their laps… well, to paraphrase Dr. Evil, "This organization will not tolerate embraces failure!"
Mr. niteowl77
Noticed that Trump was the only one he look and responded to the other candidates when they spoke. He was totally involved and appeared to listen and take in their comments
Trump compares to Ronald Reagan how? Reagan was a twice elected governor of California, a state whose GNP would put it in the top ten in the world. Trump has never been elected to anything. Despite liberal criticisms of Reagan, he was always a sincere and deep thinker who’d studied and understood conservative principles. No one with any sense thinks Trump is a movement conservative or a man with a Burkean bone in his body. He’s a fraud who has spent most of his life espousing liberalism and funding it. Now, he’s duping conservatives.
Yes Bill is totally in the tank for Jeb and now Carly.
The Democrat media has been up early this morning spinning for Fiorina, promoting the idea that she was the runaway winner. However, many viewers will remember her sourpuss face rather than what she said. Would you want to hear Fiorina pontificating on TV for four years? It would be as tiring as Obama’s filibuster has been.
“Trumpeteers”
ps. Full disclosure the Ted Cruz campaign (via Brian Phillips, Director of Rapid Response) has contacted us claiming they do have a road map for a Ted Cruz victory. I have replied to their email contact welcoming their outline.
He is winning, he is telling the truth which is what the huge majority of Americans want to hear and as far as insulting yebbies wife that would be your opinion as a Trump hater.
He calls people like kerry “stupid” because it is how they behave. He classifies the current crop of our “leaders” as ignorant and out classed by our adversaries and competitors because they are. He speaks about his great wealth because he is proud of what he has done and speaks of his love of America because it is America which allowed him to become so successful.
Trump speaks his mind instead of bullshitting people by saying what he thinks they want to hear and what will get him elected. If you don’t like Trump, don’t vote for him but with him unlike everyone else, what you see is what you get.
Personally I would be happy with Trump and Cruz on the ticket and in any order.
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