i’m in cash in my 401k and not contributing any longer. i’m long cash as i can be as a united states serf.
“Add six years. 2015.”
David Stockman: There’s really no magic numbers here, but it’s remarkable that these central bank driven bubbles tend to peak after about six years. The dot com bubble started really in mid-1994 with the famous Netscape IPO. It crashed in March 2000, six years. The housing bubble roughly started in 2002. It totally crashed in 2008. Six years. The meltdown on Wall Street bottomed in March 2009. Add six years. 2015. I think we’re at the end of this bubble simply based on the fact that they can’t expand forever. They reach an asymptotic peak, and then confidence is lost, a catalyst occurs, a black swan appears, the selling begins, and there’s nothing under this market. There is no safety net under this market.
Once again, there are restrictions and other things that may be an issue to some, but it works for me - I can let it stand for the next 8 years w/o needing to tap it for anything. It's a lot better than the sub 2% my Gov't TSP was in and so far above my savings accounts it's nuts.