I bring up this story because it fits into the discussion.
Around fifteen years ago in Germany, the SPD Party won the election and had a partner with the Greens....which meant they had to promise a cabinet post. They gave them the health ministry. About six months into the episode...the health ministry helped to push a two-step significant cigarette tax proposal up. Step one was a massive step on taxes per pack. It passed because of the majority of Greens and SPD pushing it.
A year passes, and the revenue ministry of Germany gets all freaky one day. They are missing around 300 million Euro from the anticipated collection of smokes taxes. It was guaranteed income for the national government and it’s not simple to make-up the income for spending purposes. The health ministry notes that cigarettes consumed went drastically down...so their health agenda is working. Time to go to step two of the agenda.
Well, then the customs patrol guys piped up....they’ve been busing large bulk untaxed cigarettes coming into Germany. Not the little guy with twelve cartoons of smokes...but folks carrying 500 cartoons and selling them to folks on the street or pub-owners. Since the price increase...it made sense for black-market cigarettes. No one is quitting smoking....they simply went to the black-market. The second tax increase? It never went into effect.
Since then, they’ve never recovered. Black-market cigarette smuggling is a regular daily thing and a guy could easily make it as a smuggler.
So it,s a jobs program.......