Greenfield: The End of Science

The current temperature of the Earth is around 14.0-15.1°C, according to the World Meteorological Organization and other scientific organizations.

Where? You do have to specify that, you know. . . or you have to state that your figure is an average. . . Then you should specify an average of what. By the way, that temperature range you provided has a built in measurement uncertainty of approximately 7.3% yet the AWG crowd claim that over the last century the Earth has warmed by 0.8°C. . . Or 5.3%. And that in the next 22 years, it will rise another 0.6°C or about 4.7% Both of those are less than the measured average uncertainty. . . Hmmmmm. What do we make of that?

On the Serotonin. . . you again tell a good what, but the question was WHY does Serotonin affect people the way it does. That we don't know. How do these chemicals translate to feelings, thoughts, moods, emotions. . . that we haven't a clue.

I first came across ND Tyson on Book TV, and found him entertaining.

Further exposure has taken the shine off to the extent that unless it's a cameo, I'll change the channel too.

Perusing the on-demand recently, I've had to hit the mute button while Comcast insisted on inflicted BHO, Tyson, & the widow Sagan on me.

Where? You do have to specify that, you know. . . or you have to state that your figure is an average. . . Then you should specify an average of what.

It's the temperature record of the planet. I provided a link to how that is measured. Did you read the link.

By the way, that temperature range you provided has a built in measurement uncertainty of approximately 7.3%

The range is caused by the differences between land-based instrumental analysis and tropospheric analysis by satellite.

Or 5.3%. And that in the next 22 years, it will rise another 0.6°C or about 4.7% Both of those are less than the measured average uncertainty. . . Hmmmmm. What do we make of that?

I don't. I don't think it's going to rise that high. I think their predictions of temperature rise are incorrect.

On the Serotonin. . . you again tell a good what, but the question was WHY does Serotonin affect people the way it does.

Then it's a bad question. Science is a HOW things happen. Science does not attempt to explain why. Of course most people say "Why?" when they mean "How?" though; it's part of the imprecision of the non-scientifically or non-technically inclined. "Why?" is a philosophical or religious question. It can have any answer you want. So WHY does serotonin affect depression? Doesn't matter. Irrelevant. All that matters is HOW it affects depression, which is measurable. Why is not measurable.

How do these chemicals translate to feelings, thoughts, moods, emotions. . . that we haven't a clue.

Further experimentation and hypothesis will lead us to that answer.

That’s a lot of information which unfortunately offers no answer to the questions I asked.

Then please restate your question precisely and concisely. What is it that you want to know?

You are apparently responding to more than one person which may cause some difficulty.
My question is as follows;
You made the following post;“The current temperature of the Earth is around 14.0-15.1°C, according to the World Meteorological Organization and other scientific organizations.”
That seems reasonable maybe, saying the temperature of the Earth is somewhere within a total range of 1.1 degree C. What does NOT seem reasonable is that some articles I have read mention people claiming to have measured an annual increase in the temperature of something like .08 degree C. It simply does not make sense that you can measure an increase to an acccuracy of two places past the decimal or 1/100th of one degree if you cannot state the current temperature to greater precision than a range of 1.1 degree C or plus or minus .55 degree C. The only way to know the year over year increase to 1/100th of a degree is if you can state last year’s temperature to 1/200th of a degree and this year’s temperature on the same date to that same 1/200th degree accuracy, error can accumulate so the potential error in the increase is double the potential error in the two other measurements. It is not like two boards that you can align one on top of the other and measure the difference in length without ever measuring the actual length of either one. Do I make myself clear?

Personally I think the claims of measuring the temperature of the Earth to two places to the right of the decimal are equivalent to a carpenter who measures a board with his 72 inch folding ruler and proclaims it be 144.08 inches long. That would be just plain silliness, 144 and 1/16 plus or minus 1/32 might be reasonable.

Secondly, if the current temperature of the Earth cannot be stated to any greater accuracy than plus or minus .55 degree it is for damned certain that it makes no sense for people to tell me I should be worried because they claim to have measured an annual increase of .08 degree.

Unfortunately (re, depression), that is not what the article says (heck, they make that clear in the abstract, “although less for a causal relationship between the two”).

First, although serotonin may be involved, there are no data showing the direction of influence (i.e., does low serotonin levels lead to this group of behavior we call depression or does something in the external environment lead to this collection of behavior we call depression AND lead to low serotonin levels?).

Second, there are no data showing that low serotonin levels, and ONLY low serotonin level, lead to the specific group of behavior we call depression (this would be, for all intents and purposes, be impossible).

Finally, even if low serotonin levels precede, and thus cause, depression, current diagnostic procedures do not assess levels of serotonin, they assess behavior. Given the likely impossibility of a demonstration that low serotonin levels, and ONLY low serotonin levels, cause that group of behavior, using current diagnostic practices as evidence of the role of serotonin in depression is specious, at best.

As I said, we haven’t even begun to approach description of the role of serotonin levels in depression (i.e., no researchers have even tackled the first problem, namely, describing when serotonin levels change vis a vis onset of depression), let alone prediction and control.

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