Posted on 03/18/2014 8:14:11 AM PDT by Leroy S. Mort
A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.
Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.
Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.
When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.
The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.
Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport. For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.
If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).
What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.
This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.
Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.
Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.
Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.
Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.
The Occam's Razor explanation.
That would explain the seemingly credible letter written by an oil rig worker who thought he saw a plane in flames overhead.
If the pilot was not muslim, he did not have the simulator in his home, and his family did not dissapear, I’d buy this. And you are correct, the Occam’s Razor explanation is most likely.
Thing is, in a 21st century world, the information above does sort of make the “the pilot did it on purpose” explanation another Occam’s Razpr explanation.
I buy it.
Terrorist angle makes no sense.
* who needs to deal with 230+ extra people?
* easier to just buy a plane and use it for a nefarious purpose.
* element of surprise is gone
* no one credible claimed responsibility.
Only thing open concerning this theory is that someone should have gotten a mayday signal out somehow
The confounding piece is the 5 hours of Sat Pings... Did it ghost fly for 5 hours?
Found this.
MH370 most likely caught fire, tried to land in Langkawi, says former pilot
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/missing-malaysian-jet-mh370-google-plus-langkawi-chris-goodfellow/1/350052.html
Amazing how the pilot’s family knew to move elsewhere in advance, and still not surface.
So where is the debris?
Location of airport.
Langkawi International Airport
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langkawi_International_Airport
Terrorist angle makes no sense.
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Agree. Why steal a plane and then have everyone in the world looking for it? If located, the plane would never be allowed to take off again without being intercepted.
The whole terrorist angle seems to be far too complicated to succeed. Too many moving parts in that type of scenario.
Diversion?
Agreed. Though were there not reports about the transponders being turned off before the final radio communication with the flight crew?
On an isolated beach?
The family has two homes and stay in the one that is closest to the airport when dads in town so said a European newspaper days ago.
The only possible terrorism angle I can see is a pilot infuriated with the political situation in his own country decides to turn the plane around and head back to the city he left from — with bad intentions. It does appear he was very upset with recent developments in his own country. Maybe the “plan” met resistance and didn’t work out as intended.
But the Swissair flight pilots relayed several messages and updates to control towers about their situation.
What messages?
But no distress call? Hard to understand that.
But in an updated timeline of the period after ground control lost contact with the missing Flight 370, CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said the communications system could have been shut off at “any time” between its last known transmission, at 1:07 a.m., and 30 minutes later when it was expected to transmit another signal.
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