Question for the scientists on this thread:
Will the frozen Great Lakes impact local weather for Spring and Summer? Will the effects only be to the east of any given frozen Lake?
I am about 300 miles south of Superior and to the west of Lake Michigan. This is within the colder than normal area on the maps above. Our extended forecast is a cold to cooler March, April, May. We have 7 feet of frost in the ground, as well. Is there a formula for frost coming out of the ground relative to air temperatures?
Thanks in advance.
More ice means the waters will not warm as quickly from the summer sunlight. Saw an estimate that just when the ice is supposed to be mostly melted this summer, it will be time again to build ice. And that was at about 80-90 % coverage. At 100 % coverage it may never fully thaw this summer. That should mean less rain for the east, but we have some other complicating factors right now driving more rain overall.
Our weather here in Michigan primarily depends on the Great Lakes. The retired meteorologist Craig James said many times that weather forecasting was more difficult here than anywhere, and he also gets high marks for calling everyone out on the global warming hoax.
The winter arrived about a month early; the big lakes didn’t have that long cooling period that keeps them from freezing over. It was so cold and stayed that way that the surface iced, and when the waves (it’s denied even by people who live here, but the Lakes also have tides) went up and over, it was like making an ice omelet.
But the satellite lake temps still showed in the low to mid 40s F, after the whole surface as far as the eye could see from shore was white ice.
We were at 16 below here this morning; the days have been sunny as all get out, as Earth makes its way around the Sun, but the temps haven’t risen.
There are huge assed piles of ice and snow from the plowing and shovels, and it hasn’t warmed up enough at any time this winter to melt any of it. It’s perfectly understandable I think that, within a couple of weeks (the 21st isn’t far off now) a lot of this will just melt at the same time, and we’ll have flooding on dry land as it were. The river will rise. But meantime, the Sun has a lot of catching up to do, because of all the ice piles keeping the temps low.
Because of the depth of most of these Great Lakes, there’s a lot of mass, and water cools down (and heats up) more slowly than land does. Typically these sunny days take the frozen surface of the Lakes from solid ice to open water in the space of a week at most. Once all the ice is gone (and ice is an insulator, believe or not) all that meltwater will arrive from swollen rivers.
It’ll mean a long, cool Spring, more like I remember it from childhood, when time took longer to go by. Last frost probably won’t be later than usual. Lake levels will be up. We’ll have more rain in the summer, which will please all the “it isn’t the heat, it’s the humidity” people. Should be a good year for carrots, radishes, corn, and greens (lettuce, spinach). Peppers were expensive last year, probably be a good choice to grow instead of tomatoes because of the mold we’re likely to have this year. Melon prices will probably be higher, yields down (around here).
Lake Temps (graphic is updated from time to time, more in the summer)
http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/michigan/m4.gif
