The inside pane is the one with the round hole. That would mean the pellet would have to have shattered the outside pane and THEN made an almost perfect round hole. No way, no how. Looks more to me that it was shot from the inside.
It is possible that the outer pane was already broken, or a hard projectile, such as a round rock or marble could have shattered the outer pane and holed the inner pane. At least that seems possible to me.
Both of the round holes show the outer glass broken with much larger holes than the inner one, also the outer glass breaks appear to be irregular.
Not sure that it means a great deal, but if both were broken at the same time, then it does not look like air rifle damage at first glance.
You really have to try to duplicate the circumstance to see what sort of damage that air rifle with those pellets would do. Even then, I am not sure that you could prove that the soldier did the shooting.
Air rifles are very common.