The latter portion of your hunch was the first thing that crossed my mind. It's like Aesop's "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". Discredit a plausible scenario often enough and when it becomes a reality, it will be ignored by most.
Exactly. A few easily debunked nutcases with the right story line but the wrong particulars can do more damage to ferreting out the truth than all the dead bodies in obscure parks.
The other tactic is to perform acts so outrageous they sound like conspiracy theories on crack.
The outrageousness of the act becomes its own defense.
The Govt' (BATFE) ran guns to Mexican drug cartels so they could be traced from crime scenes back to the US, so they could use it as an excuse to push for more gun control.
The Government made huge loans with taxpayer money to renewable energy companies on the brink of bankruptcy, which were funneled back through in the form of campaign contributions before the company went belly up anyway.
Just a pair of examples which would challenge the average Low Information Voter's normalcy bias and make them look at you like you were the kook.