“Then there is the risk pool collapse issue I spoke to above.”
My vision problem here is that I don’t think anyone can predict how long this will take to “occur”. And by “occur”, I will parse that meaning into three separate meanings:
1: The risk pool collapse, the feasibility collapse, I would stipulate, can be said to have occurred 90 days post Oct 01 if a statistical analysis shows it to be so at that point.
2: Then there is the stage where such a collapse is acknowledged. I would say that will not occur before mid-year 2014.
3: And then there is the stage where the belief becomes widespread that “we have to do something about this”. Of course “what we have to do” is to revise any policies then in force, raise deductibles, raise non-compliance fines, raise premia, etc; etc; create another bureaucracy or seven to handle the necessary redistributions. What could be more important than to submerge the pure idiocy of this thing under several more legislative layers so that the guts become untouchable?
I’m not sure 0bama has trapped himself as you say. He could beat some kid’s head in on nationwide TV and I do not think his support would ever fall below 40-odd percent.
Obama’s minions will see the immediately mathematical collapse of the exchanges if people with low premiums are allowed to keep their plans, so Obama will oppose allowing people to keep their plans.
Obama has now trapped himself. He’s played a very stupid game here, and now he gets to win stupid prizes.
I think by mid-2014, the insurance companies will be public with the information. Many of them are public-traded companies, and they have to report information on their 10-K’s and 10-Q’s. They have no choice, they can’t lie to the investors for the pleasure of King Barry The Affirmatively Actioned.
There will be forward-looking statements made by insurers as to their declining earnings - and this will come as a rude surprise to Wall Street. At this point, the insurers (and the re-insurers who back the insurers) will be on the phone to DC.
There will be little that can be done at this point, because from July onwards, Congress will be mostly out of town campaigning for the November election. The truth will be even more difficult: most people don’t understand actuarial mathematics, nor the concept of risk pools. The Democrats will be calling for “single payer,” but the taxes necessary to implement their vision of “single payer” will be absurdly high. The brutal truth is that there is NO other nation in the world where people get such first-dollar subsidies as Americans do on this subject. And that’s what a lot of people (especially women) want: First-dollar subsidy.
Women helped install Obama. I hope they like the screwing he’s going to give them.