Initial Jobless Claims Rise, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation Flat, Treasury Yields Rise

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/07/25/initial-jobless-claims-rise-durable-goods-orders-ex-transportation-flat-treasury-yields-rise/ ^

[whitedog57]

Today’s news on employment and durable goods orders was not welcome news for the housing and commercial real estate markets.

Problem: flat-lined employment to population ratio and the declining labor force participation.

employment_population_ratio

The initial jobless claims supports this depressing reality. According to the Department of Labor, “In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 336,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 346,500. The previous week was revised up from 334,000.”

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Over the past year, recent initial jobless claims have been below the average (red line).

Continuing jobless claims dropped to 2,997,000 from a revised print of 3,116,000. That was welcome news after last week’s spike.

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Durable goods orders rose a smokin’ 4.2%! But ex-transportation, it was 0%. In other words, Boeing airline orders are keeping our GDP afloat. Expectations were for 0.5%.

durablegoods

Finally, Capital Goods Shipments Ex Air were down -0.9% versus the expectations of +1.1%. Hopefully, this is only noise.

The reaction in Treasury markets? The 10 year Treasury is up again about 3.4 bps at 10:44am EST.

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And here is the yield curve since the May Day Massacre where global yields began to rise.

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[whitedog57]

No jobs for young people.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Bring back American jobs.

You too Republicans.

Stop importing, start exporting.