Posted on 07/24/2013 7:18:50 AM PDT by whitedog57
I am speaking at the Cleveland Fed on September 19th concerning “The New Housing Finance System: Are We There Yet?” But with the mortgage market shrinking, I may not have to speak at the conference.
mbastats072413
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey, mortgage purchase applications fell 2.07% from the preceding week.
mbapurchase072413
Mortgage rates (using Bankrate’s 30 year fixed-rate index) have been generally rising since May 1st (pink box), but falling since July 5th (red box). But even with falling mortgage rates, mortgage purchase applications fell last week and have been generally falling since July 5th.
mbapurchmayday1
The longer-term chart of mortgage purchase applications reveals three phases of mortgage rates. The first phase, the bubble creation phase, was declining mortgage rates and rising mortgage purchase applications. The second phase, gently rising mortgage rates, revealed increasing mortgage purchase applications (credit relaxation). The third phase is declining mortgage rates AND falling mortgage purchase applications.
mb30mbapruc
The average size of mortgage purchase applications peaked on May 1st and have been generally falling since with mortgage rate increases.
mbasizemay1
Here is the longer-term chart of mortgage rates and average mortgage size.
ltmthgzie
Mortgage refinancings? They were down slightly last week. Since May 1st, mortgage refinancings have dropped quite a bit (red box), but since July 5th, mortgage rates have been dropping and the decline of mortgage refinancing applications is slowing.
mbareimtgrate
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasts rising purchase applications even with rising mortgage rates.
mbafore072413
Let’s see if real GDP growth takes off like a scaled rabbit. But the longer-term trend of real GDP growth does not indicate a surge.
Long-Term Real GDP Growth
Global sovereign yields are rising almost across the board along with US Treasury 10s (up 6.4 bps this morning). Hopefully for borrowers this trend in the Treasury yields today doesn’t manifest itself as a long-term trend.
wbm072413
So, we shall see if the MBA forecast is correct. I am not so optimistic. But as The Dude said, “Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.“
TheDude
Stolen charts that you claim to be the author of.
Is that why you don't post them here?
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